Frost Dates: First and last frost dates for weeki wachee, fl
What's a safe temperature for tender plants? When the nightly temperature falls, frost can form, even above 32°, because the air is colder high above the ground and the frost can form up there and then fall down onto your garden and do some damage, even if it's 36° on the ground. So many factors come into play, including wind, concrete, houses, trees and other structures, etc etc etc. Because of all this, you might want to consider 36° as "the danger zone".
In your average springtime, you have a 90% chance that there will be no 36° nights by April 1. In other words, you can pretty much count on being safe from frost by that day. But we want to get those tomatoes in the ground as soon as possible, right? We see that there's still an 80% chance of 36° on February 16, so we don't dare plant that early. We wait a few days and by March 6 we are at the 50/50 point. At this point, we are close and we can start watching the weather forecast. If the upcoming week's forecast doesn't show below 40°, then it's probably okay to risk planting out your plants.
| Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 16° | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Last 20° | Jan 11 | Dec 25 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Last 24° | Feb 15 | Feb 4 | Jan 27 | Jan 19 | Jan 10 | Dec 25 | -- | -- | -- |
| Last 28° | Feb 28 | Feb 19 | Feb 12 | Feb 6 | Feb 1 | Jan 25 | Jan 18 | Jan 7 | -- |
| Last 32° | Mar 19 | Mar 10 | Mar 3 | Feb 26 | Feb 20 | Feb 15 | Feb 9 | Feb 2 | Jan 22 |
| Last 36° | Apr 1 | Mar 23 | Mar 16 | Mar 11 | Mar 6 | Feb 28 | Feb 23 | Feb 16 | Feb 7 |
The charts on this page show the probabilities of receiving a certain temperature on a certain day. Some examples that might help:
- You have a small 20% chance of getting 32° by November 27.
- There is a 50% chance of being hit by a 32° frost starting around December 18
- You have a 80% chance of seeing 32° by January 8
- Said another way, you have a 1 in 5 chance at making it to that day without a 32° night.
| Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| First 16° | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| First 20° | Jan 6 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| First 24° | Dec 21 | Jan 1 | Jan 9 | Jan 17 | Jan 28 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| First 28° | Dec 3 | Dec 15 | Dec 24 | Jan 1 | Jan 8 | Jan 17 | Jan 26 | Feb 10 | -- |
| First 32° | Nov 17 | Nov 27 | Dec 5 | Dec 11 | Dec 18 | Dec 24 | Dec 31 | Jan 8 | Jan 20 |
| First 36° | Nov 2 | Nov 13 | Nov 20 | Nov 27 | Dec 3 | Dec 10 | Dec 16 | Dec 24 | Jan 4 |
Data is provided by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information.