Frost Dates: First and last frost dates for virginia city, mt
What's a safe temperature for tender plants? When the nightly temperature falls, frost can form, even above 32°, because the air is colder high above the ground and the frost can form up there and then fall down onto your garden and do some damage, even if it's 36° on the ground. So many factors come into play, including wind, concrete, houses, trees and other structures, etc etc etc. Because of all this, you might want to consider 36° as "the danger zone".
In your average springtime, you have a 90% chance that there will be no 36° nights by July 19. In other words, you can pretty much count on being safe from frost by that day. But we want to get those tomatoes in the ground as soon as possible, right? We see that there's still an 80% chance of 36° on June 21, so we don't dare plant that early. We wait a few days and by July 2 we are at the 50/50 point. At this point, we are close and we can start watching the weather forecast. If the upcoming week's forecast doesn't show below 40°, then it's probably okay to risk planting out your plants.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Last 16° | May 2 | Apr 26 | Apr 21 | Apr 17 | Apr 13 | Apr 9 | Apr 5 | Mar 31 | Mar 25 |
Last 20° | May 13 | May 7 | May 3 | Apr 29 | Apr 26 | Apr 23 | Apr 19 | Apr 15 | Apr 10 |
Last 24° | May 22 | May 16 | May 11 | May 8 | May 4 | May 1 | Apr 27 | Apr 23 | Apr 17 |
Last 28° | Jun 20 | Jun 13 | Jun 8 | Jun 4 | May 31 | May 27 | May 22 | May 17 | May 10 |
Last 32° | Jul 6 | Jun 29 | Jun 25 | Jun 21 | Jun 18 | Jun 14 | Jun 10 | Jun 6 | May 30 |
Last 36° | Jul 19 | Jul 13 | Jul 9 | Jul 5 | Jul 2 | Jun 29 | Jun 25 | Jun 21 | Jun 16 |
The charts on this page show the probabilities of receiving a certain temperature on a certain day. Some examples that might help:
- You have a small 20% chance of getting 32° by August 26.
- There is a 50% chance of being hit by a 32° frost starting around September 8
- You have a 80% chance of seeing 32° by September 20
- Said another way, you have a 1 in 5 chance at making it to that day without a 32° night.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
First 16° | Oct 6 | Oct 12 | Oct 16 | Oct 19 | Oct 23 | Oct 26 | Oct 30 | Nov 3 | Nov 9 |
First 20° | Sep 26 | Oct 1 | Oct 5 | Oct 9 | Oct 12 | Oct 15 | Oct 19 | Oct 23 | Oct 29 |
First 24° | Sep 12 | Sep 18 | Sep 22 | Sep 26 | Sep 30 | Oct 3 | Oct 7 | Oct 12 | Oct 18 |
First 28° | Sep 4 | Sep 9 | Sep 12 | Sep 15 | Sep 18 | Sep 21 | Sep 23 | Sep 27 | Oct 2 |
First 32° | Aug 20 | Aug 26 | Aug 31 | Sep 4 | Sep 8 | Sep 11 | Sep 15 | Sep 20 | Sep 27 |
First 36° | Aug 10 | Aug 16 | Aug 21 | Aug 25 | Aug 29 | Sep 1 | Sep 5 | Sep 10 | Sep 17 |
Data is provided by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information.