Frost Dates: First and last frost dates for trident, mt
What's a safe temperature for tender plants? When the nightly temperature falls, frost can form, even above 32°, because the air is colder high above the ground and the frost can form up there and then fall down onto your garden and do some damage, even if it's 36° on the ground. So many factors come into play, including wind, concrete, houses, trees and other structures, etc etc etc. Because of all this, you might want to consider 36° as "the danger zone".
In your average springtime, you have a 90% chance that there will be no 36° nights by June 27. In other words, you can pretty much count on being safe from frost by that day. But we want to get those tomatoes in the ground as soon as possible, right? We see that there's still an 80% chance of 36° on May 26, so we don't dare plant that early. We wait a few days and by June 8 we are at the 50/50 point. At this point, we are close and we can start watching the weather forecast. If the upcoming week's forecast doesn't show below 40°, then it's probably okay to risk planting out your plants.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Last 16° | Apr 12 | Apr 6 | Apr 1 | Mar 28 | Mar 25 | Mar 21 | Mar 17 | Mar 12 | Mar 6 |
Last 20° | Apr 24 | Apr 19 | Apr 15 | Apr 12 | Apr 9 | Apr 6 | Apr 3 | Mar 30 | Mar 25 |
Last 24° | May 4 | Apr 29 | Apr 25 | Apr 22 | Apr 19 | Apr 16 | Apr 13 | Apr 10 | Apr 5 |
Last 28° | May 16 | May 11 | May 7 | May 4 | May 1 | Apr 29 | Apr 26 | Apr 22 | Apr 17 |
Last 32° | Jun 13 | Jun 5 | May 31 | May 26 | May 22 | May 18 | May 13 | May 8 | Apr 30 |
Last 36° | Jun 27 | Jun 20 | Jun 16 | Jun 11 | Jun 8 | Jun 4 | May 31 | May 26 | May 19 |
The charts on this page show the probabilities of receiving a certain temperature on a certain day. Some examples that might help:
- You have a small 20% chance of getting 32° by September 10.
- There is a 50% chance of being hit by a 32° frost starting around September 17
- You have a 80% chance of seeing 32° by September 24
- Said another way, you have a 1 in 5 chance at making it to that day without a 32° night.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
First 16° | Oct 13 | Oct 20 | Oct 24 | Oct 28 | Oct 31 | Nov 4 | Nov 8 | Nov 12 | Nov 18 |
First 20° | Oct 6 | Oct 11 | Oct 15 | Oct 18 | Oct 21 | Oct 23 | Oct 26 | Oct 30 | Nov 4 |
First 24° | Sep 22 | Sep 28 | Oct 2 | Oct 6 | Oct 9 | Oct 13 | Oct 16 | Oct 21 | Oct 27 |
First 28° | Sep 12 | Sep 17 | Sep 21 | Sep 24 | Sep 27 | Sep 30 | Oct 3 | Oct 6 | Oct 11 |
First 32° | Sep 6 | Sep 10 | Sep 12 | Sep 15 | Sep 17 | Sep 19 | Sep 21 | Sep 24 | Sep 27 |
First 36° | Aug 31 | Sep 3 | Sep 6 | Sep 8 | Sep 10 | Sep 12 | Sep 14 | Sep 16 | Sep 19 |
Data is provided by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information.