Frost Dates: First and last frost dates for soldier summit, ut
What's a safe temperature for tender plants? When the nightly temperature falls, frost can form, even above 32°, because the air is colder high above the ground and the frost can form up there and then fall down onto your garden and do some damage, even if it's 36° on the ground. So many factors come into play, including wind, concrete, houses, trees and other structures, etc etc etc. Because of all this, you might want to consider 36° as "the danger zone".
In your average springtime, you have a 90% chance that there will be no 36° nights by August 2. In other words, you can pretty much count on being safe from frost by that day. But we want to get those tomatoes in the ground as soon as possible, right? We see that there's still an 80% chance of 36° on June 22, so we don't dare plant that early. We wait a few days and by July 8 we are at the 50/50 point. At this point, we are close and we can start watching the weather forecast. If the upcoming week's forecast doesn't show below 40°, then it's probably okay to risk planting out your plants.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Last 16° | May 27 | May 19 | May 13 | May 9 | May 4 | Apr 29 | Apr 25 | Apr 19 | Apr 11 |
Last 20° | Jun 4 | May 29 | May 25 | May 21 | May 18 | May 14 | May 11 | May 6 | Apr 30 |
Last 24° | Jun 17 | Jun 10 | Jun 5 | May 31 | May 27 | May 23 | May 19 | May 14 | May 7 |
Last 28° | Jun 24 | Jun 18 | Jun 13 | Jun 9 | Jun 6 | Jun 2 | May 29 | May 25 | May 19 |
Last 32° | Jul 12 | Jul 5 | Jun 30 | Jun 25 | Jun 21 | Jun 17 | Jun 12 | Jun 7 | May 31 |
Last 36° | Aug 2 | Jul 25 | Jul 18 | Jul 13 | Jul 8 | Jul 3 | Jun 28 | Jun 22 | Jun 13 |
The charts on this page show the probabilities of receiving a certain temperature on a certain day. Some examples that might help:
- You have a small 20% chance of getting 32° by August 20.
- There is a 50% chance of being hit by a 32° frost starting around September 4
- You have a 80% chance of seeing 32° by September 19
- Said another way, you have a 1 in 5 chance at making it to that day without a 32° night.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
First 16° | Oct 8 | Oct 14 | Oct 19 | Oct 23 | Oct 27 | Oct 30 | Nov 4 | Nov 8 | Nov 15 |
First 20° | Sep 20 | Sep 27 | Oct 3 | Oct 7 | Oct 11 | Oct 15 | Oct 20 | Oct 25 | Nov 1 |
First 24° | Sep 6 | Sep 14 | Sep 20 | Sep 25 | Sep 29 | Oct 4 | Oct 9 | Oct 14 | Oct 22 |
First 28° | Aug 29 | Sep 4 | Sep 8 | Sep 11 | Sep 14 | Sep 18 | Sep 21 | Sep 25 | Oct 1 |
First 32° | Aug 13 | Aug 20 | Aug 26 | Aug 31 | Sep 4 | Sep 8 | Sep 13 | Sep 19 | Sep 27 |
First 36° | Aug 3 | Aug 9 | Aug 13 | Aug 16 | Aug 19 | Aug 22 | Aug 26 | Aug 29 | Sep 4 |
Data is provided by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information.