Frost Dates: First and last frost dates for rye patch dam, nv
What's a safe temperature for tender plants? When the nightly temperature falls, frost can form, even above 32°, because the air is colder high above the ground and the frost can form up there and then fall down onto your garden and do some damage, even if it's 36° on the ground. So many factors come into play, including wind, concrete, houses, trees and other structures, etc etc etc. Because of all this, you might want to consider 36° as "the danger zone".
In your average springtime, you have a 90% chance that there will be no 36° nights by July 13. In other words, you can pretty much count on being safe from frost by that day. But we want to get those tomatoes in the ground as soon as possible, right? We see that there's still an 80% chance of 36° on June 4, so we don't dare plant that early. We wait a few days and by June 20 we are at the 50/50 point. At this point, we are close and we can start watching the weather forecast. If the upcoming week's forecast doesn't show below 40°, then it's probably okay to risk planting out your plants.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Last 16° | Apr 18 | Apr 9 | Apr 3 | Mar 28 | Mar 23 | Mar 18 | Mar 12 | Mar 6 | Feb 25 |
Last 20° | May 4 | Apr 27 | Apr 22 | Apr 18 | Apr 14 | Apr 10 | Apr 6 | Apr 1 | Mar 25 |
Last 24° | May 20 | May 13 | May 7 | May 3 | Apr 29 | Apr 24 | Apr 20 | Apr 15 | Apr 7 |
Last 28° | May 27 | May 21 | May 17 | May 14 | May 11 | May 7 | May 4 | Apr 30 | Apr 24 |
Last 32° | Jun 23 | Jun 16 | Jun 11 | Jun 6 | Jun 2 | May 29 | May 25 | May 20 | May 13 |
Last 36° | Jul 13 | Jul 5 | Jun 29 | Jun 24 | Jun 20 | Jun 15 | Jun 10 | Jun 4 | May 27 |
The charts on this page show the probabilities of receiving a certain temperature on a certain day. Some examples that might help:
- You have a small 20% chance of getting 32° by September 8.
- There is a 50% chance of being hit by a 32° frost starting around September 19
- You have a 80% chance of seeing 32° by September 30
- Said another way, you have a 1 in 5 chance at making it to that day without a 32° night.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
First 16° | Oct 15 | Oct 21 | Oct 25 | Oct 28 | Oct 31 | Nov 3 | Nov 6 | Nov 10 | Nov 15 |
First 20° | Oct 3 | Oct 9 | Oct 13 | Oct 17 | Oct 21 | Oct 24 | Oct 28 | Nov 2 | Nov 8 |
First 24° | Sep 22 | Sep 28 | Oct 2 | Oct 5 | Oct 9 | Oct 12 | Oct 15 | Oct 19 | Oct 25 |
First 28° | Sep 12 | Sep 17 | Sep 21 | Sep 25 | Sep 28 | Oct 1 | Oct 5 | Oct 9 | Oct 15 |
First 32° | Sep 2 | Sep 8 | Sep 12 | Sep 16 | Sep 19 | Sep 22 | Sep 26 | Sep 30 | Oct 6 |
First 36° | Aug 16 | Aug 22 | Aug 26 | Aug 29 | Sep 2 | Sep 5 | Sep 9 | Sep 13 | Sep 18 |
Data is provided by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information.