Frost Dates: First and last frost dates for moberly, mo
The charts on this page show the probabilities of receiving a certain temperature on a certain day. Some examples that might help:
- You have a small 20% chance of getting 32° by October 13.
- There is a 50% chance of being hit by a 32° frost starting around October 22
- You have a 80% chance of seeing 32° by November 1
- Said another way, you have a 1 in 5 chance at making it to that day without a 32° night.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
First 16° | Nov 11 | Nov 18 | Nov 23 | Nov 27 | Dec 1 | Dec 5 | Dec 9 | Dec 14 | Dec 21 |
First 20° | Nov 4 | Nov 10 | Nov 15 | Nov 19 | Nov 23 | Nov 27 | Dec 1 | Dec 5 | Dec 12 |
First 24° | Oct 28 | Nov 3 | Nov 7 | Nov 11 | Nov 15 | Nov 19 | Nov 23 | Nov 27 | Dec 3 |
First 28° | Oct 15 | Oct 21 | Oct 25 | Oct 29 | Nov 2 | Nov 5 | Nov 9 | Nov 13 | Nov 19 |
First 32° | Oct 8 | Oct 13 | Oct 16 | Oct 19 | Oct 22 | Oct 25 | Oct 28 | Nov 1 | Nov 6 |
First 36° | Sep 26 | Sep 30 | Oct 4 | Oct 6 | Oct 9 | Oct 12 | Oct 15 | Oct 18 | Oct 23 |
What's a safe temperature for tender plants? When the nightly temperature falls, frost can form, even above 32°, because the air is colder high above the ground and the frost can form up there and then fall down onto your garden and do some damage, even if it's 36° on the ground. So many factors come into play, including wind, concrete, houses, trees and other structures, etc etc etc. Because of all this, you might want to consider 36° as "the danger zone".
In your average springtime, you have a 90% chance that there will be no 36° nights by May 4. In other words, you can pretty much count on being safe from frost by that day. But we want to get those tomatoes in the ground as soon as possible, right? We see that there's still an 80% chance of 36° on April 14, so we don't dare plant that early. We wait a few days and by April 22 we are at the 50/50 point. At this point, we are close and we can start watching the weather forecast. If the upcoming week's forecast doesn't show below 40°, then it's probably okay to risk planting out your plants.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Last 16° | Mar 22 | Mar 14 | Mar 7 | Mar 2 | Feb 26 | Feb 21 | Feb 16 | Feb 9 | Feb 1 |
Last 20° | Mar 30 | Mar 24 | Mar 19 | Mar 15 | Mar 12 | Mar 8 | Mar 4 | Feb 27 | Feb 21 |
Last 24° | Apr 10 | Apr 4 | Mar 31 | Mar 28 | Mar 24 | Mar 21 | Mar 18 | Mar 14 | Mar 8 |
Last 28° | Apr 15 | Apr 10 | Apr 7 | Apr 4 | Apr 1 | Mar 30 | Mar 27 | Mar 23 | Mar 19 |
Last 32° | Apr 22 | Apr 18 | Apr 15 | Apr 13 | Apr 11 | Apr 8 | Apr 6 | Apr 3 | Mar 31 |
Last 36° | May 4 | Apr 30 | Apr 27 | Apr 24 | Apr 22 | Apr 20 | Apr 17 | Apr 14 | Apr 10 |
Data is provided by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information.