Frost Dates: First and last frost dates for little falls, mn
The charts on this page show the probabilities of receiving a certain temperature on a certain day. Some examples that might help:
- You have a small 20% chance of getting 32° by September 19.
- There is a 50% chance of being hit by a 32° frost starting around September 26
- You have a 80% chance of seeing 32° by October 4
- Said another way, you have a 1 in 5 chance at making it to that day without a 32° night.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
First 16° | Oct 21 | Oct 26 | Oct 30 | Nov 2 | Nov 5 | Nov 8 | Nov 12 | Nov 15 | Nov 21 |
First 20° | Oct 14 | Oct 19 | Oct 23 | Oct 26 | Oct 29 | Nov 1 | Nov 4 | Nov 8 | Nov 13 |
First 24° | Oct 4 | Oct 9 | Oct 12 | Oct 15 | Oct 18 | Oct 21 | Oct 24 | Oct 28 | Nov 2 |
First 28° | Sep 20 | Sep 25 | Sep 29 | Oct 2 | Oct 4 | Oct 7 | Oct 10 | Oct 14 | Oct 19 |
First 32° | Sep 15 | Sep 19 | Sep 22 | Sep 24 | Sep 26 | Sep 29 | Oct 1 | Oct 4 | Oct 8 |
First 36° | Sep 3 | Sep 8 | Sep 12 | Sep 15 | Sep 18 | Sep 21 | Sep 24 | Sep 28 | Oct 3 |
What's a safe temperature for tender plants? When the nightly temperature falls, frost can form, even above 32°, because the air is colder high above the ground and the frost can form up there and then fall down onto your garden and do some damage, even if it's 36° on the ground. So many factors come into play, including wind, concrete, houses, trees and other structures, etc etc etc. Because of all this, you might want to consider 36° as "the danger zone".
In your average springtime, you have a 90% chance that there will be no 36° nights by June 5. In other words, you can pretty much count on being safe from frost by that day. But we want to get those tomatoes in the ground as soon as possible, right? We see that there's still an 80% chance of 36° on May 12, so we don't dare plant that early. We wait a few days and by May 21 we are at the 50/50 point. At this point, we are close and we can start watching the weather forecast. If the upcoming week's forecast doesn't show below 40°, then it's probably okay to risk planting out your plants.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Last 16° | Apr 11 | Apr 7 | Apr 4 | Apr 1 | Mar 30 | Mar 27 | Mar 25 | Mar 22 | Mar 17 |
Last 20° | Apr 17 | Apr 13 | Apr 11 | Apr 9 | Apr 7 | Apr 5 | Apr 3 | Mar 31 | Mar 28 |
Last 24° | May 3 | Apr 28 | Apr 24 | Apr 22 | Apr 19 | Apr 16 | Apr 13 | Apr 10 | Apr 5 |
Last 28° | May 15 | May 9 | May 5 | May 2 | Apr 28 | Apr 25 | Apr 21 | Apr 17 | Apr 12 |
Last 32° | May 22 | May 18 | May 15 | May 12 | May 9 | May 7 | May 4 | May 1 | Apr 27 |
Last 36° | Jun 5 | May 31 | May 27 | May 24 | May 21 | May 18 | May 15 | May 12 | May 7 |
Data is provided by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information.