Frost Dates: First and last frost dates for fenn rs, id
What's a safe temperature for tender plants? When the nightly temperature falls, frost can form, even above 32°, because the air is colder high above the ground and the frost can form up there and then fall down onto your garden and do some damage, even if it's 36° on the ground. So many factors come into play, including wind, concrete, houses, trees and other structures, etc etc etc. Because of all this, you might want to consider 36° as "the danger zone".
In your average springtime, you have a 90% chance that there will be no 36° nights by July 5. In other words, you can pretty much count on being safe from frost by that day. But we want to get those tomatoes in the ground as soon as possible, right? We see that there's still an 80% chance of 36° on June 4, so we don't dare plant that early. We wait a few days and by June 16 we are at the 50/50 point. At this point, we are close and we can start watching the weather forecast. If the upcoming week's forecast doesn't show below 40°, then it's probably okay to risk planting out your plants.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Last 16° | Mar 31 | Mar 22 | Mar 15 | Mar 10 | Mar 5 | Feb 27 | Feb 22 | Feb 15 | Feb 6 |
Last 20° | Apr 17 | Apr 9 | Apr 3 | Mar 29 | Mar 24 | Mar 20 | Mar 15 | Mar 9 | Mar 1 |
Last 24° | May 1 | Apr 24 | Apr 20 | Apr 16 | Apr 12 | Apr 9 | Apr 5 | Mar 31 | Mar 25 |
Last 28° | May 23 | May 17 | May 13 | May 9 | May 6 | May 2 | Apr 28 | Apr 24 | Apr 18 |
Last 32° | Jun 11 | Jun 5 | Jun 1 | May 28 | May 24 | May 21 | May 17 | May 12 | May 6 |
Last 36° | Jul 5 | Jun 29 | Jun 24 | Jun 20 | Jun 16 | Jun 13 | Jun 9 | Jun 4 | May 29 |
The charts on this page show the probabilities of receiving a certain temperature on a certain day. Some examples that might help:
- You have a small 20% chance of getting 32° by September 10.
- There is a 50% chance of being hit by a 32° frost starting around September 19
- You have a 80% chance of seeing 32° by September 27
- Said another way, you have a 1 in 5 chance at making it to that day without a 32° night.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
First 16° | Oct 24 | Nov 1 | Nov 8 | Nov 13 | Nov 18 | Nov 23 | Nov 28 | Dec 4 | Dec 13 |
First 20° | Oct 10 | Oct 17 | Oct 23 | Oct 28 | Nov 1 | Nov 5 | Nov 10 | Nov 15 | Nov 23 |
First 24° | Sep 29 | Oct 5 | Oct 9 | Oct 13 | Oct 17 | Oct 20 | Oct 24 | Oct 28 | Nov 3 |
First 28° | Sep 15 | Sep 21 | Sep 26 | Sep 30 | Oct 3 | Oct 7 | Oct 11 | Oct 15 | Oct 22 |
First 32° | Sep 6 | Sep 10 | Sep 14 | Sep 16 | Sep 19 | Sep 21 | Sep 24 | Sep 27 | Oct 2 |
First 36° | Aug 24 | Aug 29 | Sep 2 | Sep 6 | Sep 9 | Sep 12 | Sep 15 | Sep 19 | Sep 25 |
Data is provided by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information.