Frost Dates: First and last frost dates for eudora, ar
What's a safe temperature for tender plants? When the nightly temperature falls, frost can form, even above 32°, because the air is colder high above the ground and the frost can form up there and then fall down onto your garden and do some damage, even if it's 36° on the ground. So many factors come into play, including wind, concrete, houses, trees and other structures, etc etc etc. Because of all this, you might want to consider 36° as "the danger zone".
In your average springtime, you have a 90% chance that there will be no 36° nights by April 15. In other words, you can pretty much count on being safe from frost by that day. But we want to get those tomatoes in the ground as soon as possible, right? We see that there's still an 80% chance of 36° on March 17, so we don't dare plant that early. We wait a few days and by March 29 we are at the 50/50 point. At this point, we are close and we can start watching the weather forecast. If the upcoming week's forecast doesn't show below 40°, then it's probably okay to risk planting out your plants.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Last 16° | Feb 10 | Jan 29 | Jan 18 | Jan 5 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
Last 20° | Feb 26 | Feb 15 | Feb 8 | Feb 1 | Jan 25 | Jan 17 | Jan 6 | -- | -- |
Last 24° | Mar 11 | Feb 28 | Feb 20 | Feb 13 | Feb 7 | Jan 31 | Jan 25 | Jan 17 | Jan 6 |
Last 28° | Mar 17 | Mar 10 | Mar 5 | Mar 1 | Feb 25 | Feb 21 | Feb 16 | Feb 11 | Feb 4 |
Last 32° | Apr 5 | Mar 29 | Mar 24 | Mar 19 | Mar 15 | Mar 11 | Mar 7 | Mar 2 | Feb 23 |
Last 36° | Apr 15 | Apr 9 | Apr 5 | Apr 1 | Mar 29 | Mar 25 | Mar 21 | Mar 17 | Mar 11 |
The charts on this page show the probabilities of receiving a certain temperature on a certain day. Some examples that might help:
- You have a small 20% chance of getting 32° by November 2.
- There is a 50% chance of being hit by a 32° frost starting around November 13
- You have a 80% chance of seeing 32° by November 24
- Said another way, you have a 1 in 5 chance at making it to that day without a 32° night.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
First 16° | Dec 18 | Dec 29 | Jan 7 | Jan 17 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
First 20° | Dec 3 | Dec 14 | Dec 22 | Dec 29 | Jan 5 | Jan 13 | Jan 24 | -- | -- |
First 24° | Nov 15 | Nov 25 | Dec 3 | Dec 9 | Dec 15 | Dec 21 | Dec 27 | Jan 3 | Jan 13 |
First 28° | Nov 8 | Nov 15 | Nov 19 | Nov 24 | Nov 28 | Dec 2 | Dec 6 | Dec 11 | Dec 18 |
First 32° | Oct 27 | Nov 2 | Nov 6 | Nov 10 | Nov 13 | Nov 16 | Nov 20 | Nov 24 | Nov 30 |
First 36° | Oct 17 | Oct 23 | Oct 27 | Oct 30 | Nov 3 | Nov 6 | Nov 10 | Nov 14 | Nov 20 |
Data is provided by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information.