Frost Dates: First and last frost dates for east wareham, ma
What's a safe temperature for tender plants? When the nightly temperature falls, frost can form, even above 32°, because the air is colder high above the ground and the frost can form up there and then fall down onto your garden and do some damage, even if it's 36° on the ground. So many factors come into play, including wind, concrete, houses, trees and other structures, etc etc etc. Because of all this, you might want to consider 36° as "the danger zone".
In your average springtime, you have a 90% chance that there will be no 36° nights by May 20. In other words, you can pretty much count on being safe from frost by that day. But we want to get those tomatoes in the ground as soon as possible, right? We see that there's still an 80% chance of 36° on April 29, so we don't dare plant that early. We wait a few days and by May 7 we are at the 50/50 point. At this point, we are close and we can start watching the weather forecast. If the upcoming week's forecast doesn't show below 40°, then it's probably okay to risk planting out your plants.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Last 16° | Mar 27 | Mar 21 | Mar 16 | Mar 13 | Mar 9 | Mar 6 | Mar 2 | Feb 25 | Feb 19 |
Last 20° | Apr 3 | Mar 29 | Mar 25 | Mar 22 | Mar 19 | Mar 16 | Mar 13 | Mar 9 | Mar 4 |
Last 24° | Apr 10 | Apr 6 | Apr 3 | Apr 1 | Mar 29 | Mar 27 | Mar 24 | Mar 22 | Mar 17 |
Last 28° | Apr 23 | Apr 19 | Apr 16 | Apr 13 | Apr 11 | Apr 8 | Apr 5 | Apr 2 | Mar 29 |
Last 32° | May 5 | May 2 | Apr 29 | Apr 27 | Apr 25 | Apr 23 | Apr 21 | Apr 19 | Apr 15 |
Last 36° | May 20 | May 16 | May 13 | May 10 | May 7 | May 5 | May 2 | Apr 29 | Apr 24 |
The charts on this page show the probabilities of receiving a certain temperature on a certain day. Some examples that might help:
- You have a small 20% chance of getting 32° by October 11.
- There is a 50% chance of being hit by a 32° frost starting around October 21
- You have a 80% chance of seeing 32° by October 30
- Said another way, you have a 1 in 5 chance at making it to that day without a 32° night.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
First 16° | Nov 24 | Nov 30 | Dec 4 | Dec 8 | Dec 12 | Dec 15 | Dec 19 | Dec 24 | Dec 30 |
First 20° | Nov 14 | Nov 19 | Nov 23 | Nov 26 | Nov 29 | Dec 2 | Dec 5 | Dec 9 | Dec 14 |
First 24° | Oct 31 | Nov 6 | Nov 10 | Nov 13 | Nov 17 | Nov 20 | Nov 24 | Nov 28 | Dec 4 |
First 28° | Oct 22 | Oct 27 | Oct 30 | Nov 1 | Nov 4 | Nov 6 | Nov 9 | Nov 12 | Nov 16 |
First 32° | Oct 6 | Oct 11 | Oct 15 | Oct 18 | Oct 21 | Oct 24 | Oct 27 | Oct 30 | Nov 4 |
First 36° | Sep 26 | Sep 30 | Oct 3 | Oct 5 | Oct 8 | Oct 10 | Oct 13 | Oct 16 | Oct 20 |
Data is provided by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information.