Frost Dates: First and last frost dates for crossett, ar
What's a safe temperature for tender plants? When the nightly temperature falls, frost can form, even above 32°, because the air is colder high above the ground and the frost can form up there and then fall down onto your garden and do some damage, even if it's 36° on the ground. So many factors come into play, including wind, concrete, houses, trees and other structures, etc etc etc. Because of all this, you might want to consider 36° as "the danger zone".
In your average springtime, you have a 90% chance that there will be no 36° nights by April 23. In other words, you can pretty much count on being safe from frost by that day. But we want to get those tomatoes in the ground as soon as possible, right? We see that there's still an 80% chance of 36° on April 4, so we don't dare plant that early. We wait a few days and by April 11 we are at the 50/50 point. At this point, we are close and we can start watching the weather forecast. If the upcoming week's forecast doesn't show below 40°, then it's probably okay to risk planting out your plants.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Last 16° | Mar 1 | Feb 18 | Feb 10 | Feb 2 | Jan 25 | Jan 15 | Dec 28 | -- | -- |
Last 20° | Mar 10 | Mar 1 | Feb 22 | Feb 16 | Feb 11 | Feb 6 | Jan 31 | Jan 24 | Jan 15 |
Last 24° | Mar 19 | Mar 11 | Mar 6 | Mar 2 | Feb 25 | Feb 21 | Feb 16 | Feb 11 | Feb 4 |
Last 28° | Apr 5 | Mar 29 | Mar 24 | Mar 20 | Mar 17 | Mar 13 | Mar 9 | Mar 4 | Feb 26 |
Last 32° | Apr 18 | Apr 13 | Apr 10 | Apr 7 | Apr 4 | Apr 2 | Mar 30 | Mar 27 | Mar 22 |
Last 36° | Apr 23 | Apr 19 | Apr 16 | Apr 14 | Apr 11 | Apr 9 | Apr 6 | Apr 4 | Mar 31 |
The charts on this page show the probabilities of receiving a certain temperature on a certain day. Some examples that might help:
- You have a small 20% chance of getting 32° by October 16.
- There is a 50% chance of being hit by a 32° frost starting around October 27
- You have a 80% chance of seeing 32° by November 7
- Said another way, you have a 1 in 5 chance at making it to that day without a 32° night.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
First 16° | Dec 4 | Dec 15 | Dec 24 | Dec 31 | Jan 8 | Jan 18 | Feb 4 | -- | -- |
First 20° | Nov 20 | Nov 28 | Dec 4 | Dec 9 | Dec 14 | Dec 19 | Dec 24 | Dec 30 | Jan 7 |
First 24° | Oct 31 | Nov 9 | Nov 15 | Nov 21 | Nov 26 | Dec 1 | Dec 6 | Dec 12 | Dec 21 |
First 28° | Oct 23 | Oct 29 | Nov 3 | Nov 7 | Nov 11 | Nov 15 | Nov 19 | Nov 24 | Dec 1 |
First 32° | Oct 10 | Oct 16 | Oct 20 | Oct 24 | Oct 27 | Oct 30 | Nov 3 | Nov 7 | Nov 13 |
First 36° | Sep 30 | Oct 5 | Oct 9 | Oct 13 | Oct 16 | Oct 19 | Oct 22 | Oct 26 | Nov 1 |
Data is provided by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information.