Frost Dates: First and last frost dates for coalinga, ca
What's a safe temperature for tender plants? When the nightly temperature falls, frost can form, even above 32°, because the air is colder high above the ground and the frost can form up there and then fall down onto your garden and do some damage, even if it's 36° on the ground. So many factors come into play, including wind, concrete, houses, trees and other structures, etc etc etc. Because of all this, you might want to consider 36° as "the danger zone".
In your average springtime, you have a 90% chance that there will be no 36° nights by May 3. In other words, you can pretty much count on being safe from frost by that day. But we want to get those tomatoes in the ground as soon as possible, right? We see that there's still an 80% chance of 36° on March 9, so we don't dare plant that early. We wait a few days and by March 31 we are at the 50/50 point. At this point, we are close and we can start watching the weather forecast. If the upcoming week's forecast doesn't show below 40°, then it's probably okay to risk planting out your plants.
| Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 16° | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Last 20° | Dec 18 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Last 24° | Jan 29 | Jan 18 | Jan 9 | Dec 31 | Dec 18 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Last 28° | Mar 4 | Feb 18 | Feb 8 | Jan 31 | Jan 22 | Jan 14 | Jan 5 | Dec 24 | Dec 1 |
| Last 32° | Apr 4 | Mar 25 | Mar 18 | Mar 12 | Mar 6 | Feb 28 | Feb 22 | Feb 15 | Feb 5 |
| Last 36° | May 3 | Apr 21 | Apr 13 | Apr 6 | Mar 31 | Mar 24 | Mar 17 | Mar 9 | Feb 26 |
The charts on this page show the probabilities of receiving a certain temperature on a certain day. Some examples that might help:
- You have a small 20% chance of getting 32° by November 11.
- There is a 50% chance of being hit by a 32° frost starting around November 21
- You have a 80% chance of seeing 32° by December 2
- Said another way, you have a 1 in 5 chance at making it to that day without a 32° night.
| Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| First 16° | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| First 20° | Dec 21 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| First 24° | Dec 12 | Dec 18 | Dec 24 | Dec 30 | Jan 9 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| First 28° | Nov 15 | Nov 24 | Nov 30 | Dec 6 | Dec 12 | Dec 18 | Dec 24 | Jan 3 | -- |
| First 32° | Nov 5 | Nov 11 | Nov 15 | Nov 18 | Nov 21 | Nov 25 | Nov 28 | Dec 2 | Dec 8 |
| First 36° | Oct 25 | Oct 30 | Nov 3 | Nov 6 | Nov 9 | Nov 12 | Nov 15 | Nov 19 | Nov 24 |
Data is provided by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information.