Frost Dates: First and last frost dates for chaska, mn
The charts on this page show the probabilities of receiving a certain temperature on a certain day. Some examples that might help:
- You have a small 20% chance of getting 32° by September 25.
- There is a 50% chance of being hit by a 32° frost starting around October 2
- You have a 80% chance of seeing 32° by October 9
- Said another way, you have a 1 in 5 chance at making it to that day without a 32° night.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
First 16° | Oct 29 | Nov 3 | Nov 8 | Nov 11 | Nov 14 | Nov 18 | Nov 21 | Nov 25 | Dec 1 |
First 20° | Oct 16 | Oct 22 | Oct 26 | Oct 29 | Nov 1 | Nov 4 | Nov 7 | Nov 11 | Nov 17 |
First 24° | Oct 10 | Oct 15 | Oct 19 | Oct 23 | Oct 26 | Oct 29 | Nov 2 | Nov 5 | Nov 11 |
First 28° | Sep 27 | Oct 2 | Oct 5 | Oct 8 | Oct 11 | Oct 14 | Oct 17 | Oct 21 | Oct 26 |
First 32° | Sep 22 | Sep 25 | Sep 28 | Sep 30 | Oct 2 | Oct 4 | Oct 6 | Oct 9 | Oct 12 |
First 36° | Sep 14 | Sep 18 | Sep 21 | Sep 23 | Sep 25 | Sep 27 | Sep 30 | Oct 2 | Oct 6 |
What's a safe temperature for tender plants? When the nightly temperature falls, frost can form, even above 32°, because the air is colder high above the ground and the frost can form up there and then fall down onto your garden and do some damage, even if it's 36° on the ground. So many factors come into play, including wind, concrete, houses, trees and other structures, etc etc etc. Because of all this, you might want to consider 36° as "the danger zone".
In your average springtime, you have a 90% chance that there will be no 36° nights by May 23. In other words, you can pretty much count on being safe from frost by that day. But we want to get those tomatoes in the ground as soon as possible, right? We see that there's still an 80% chance of 36° on May 2, so we don't dare plant that early. We wait a few days and by May 10 we are at the 50/50 point. At this point, we are close and we can start watching the weather forecast. If the upcoming week's forecast doesn't show below 40°, then it's probably okay to risk planting out your plants.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Last 16° | Apr 6 | Apr 1 | Mar 29 | Mar 26 | Mar 23 | Mar 20 | Mar 17 | Mar 13 | Mar 8 |
Last 20° | Apr 14 | Apr 10 | Apr 7 | Apr 5 | Apr 2 | Mar 31 | Mar 28 | Mar 25 | Mar 21 |
Last 24° | Apr 19 | Apr 15 | Apr 12 | Apr 10 | Apr 8 | Apr 6 | Apr 4 | Apr 1 | Mar 29 |
Last 28° | May 5 | Apr 30 | Apr 27 | Apr 24 | Apr 21 | Apr 19 | Apr 16 | Apr 12 | Apr 8 |
Last 32° | May 14 | May 10 | May 7 | May 4 | May 1 | Apr 29 | Apr 26 | Apr 23 | Apr 18 |
Last 36° | May 23 | May 19 | May 15 | May 13 | May 10 | May 8 | May 5 | May 2 | Apr 28 |
Data is provided by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information.