Frost Dates: First and last frost dates for cecilville, ca
What's a safe temperature for tender plants? When the nightly temperature falls, frost can form, even above 32°, because the air is colder high above the ground and the frost can form up there and then fall down onto your garden and do some damage, even if it's 36° on the ground. So many factors come into play, including wind, concrete, houses, trees and other structures, etc etc etc. Because of all this, you might want to consider 36° as "the danger zone".
In your average springtime, you have a 90% chance that there will be no 36° nights by June 30. In other words, you can pretty much count on being safe from frost by that day. But we want to get those tomatoes in the ground as soon as possible, right? We see that there's still an 80% chance of 36° on May 20, so we don't dare plant that early. We wait a few days and by June 5 we are at the 50/50 point. At this point, we are close and we can start watching the weather forecast. If the upcoming week's forecast doesn't show below 40°, then it's probably okay to risk planting out your plants.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Last 16° | Feb 12 | Jan 31 | Jan 22 | Jan 14 | Jan 4 | Dec 23 | -- | -- | -- |
Last 20° | Mar 21 | Mar 3 | Feb 18 | Feb 7 | Jan 27 | Jan 17 | Jan 4 | Dec 20 | Nov 21 |
Last 24° | Apr 22 | Apr 7 | Mar 27 | Mar 17 | Mar 8 | Feb 28 | Feb 18 | Feb 7 | Jan 23 |
Last 28° | May 20 | May 10 | May 3 | Apr 27 | Apr 21 | Apr 16 | Apr 10 | Apr 3 | Mar 24 |
Last 32° | Jun 8 | May 31 | May 26 | May 21 | May 16 | May 12 | May 7 | May 2 | Apr 24 |
Last 36° | Jun 30 | Jun 21 | Jun 15 | Jun 10 | Jun 5 | Jun 1 | May 27 | May 20 | May 12 |
The charts on this page show the probabilities of receiving a certain temperature on a certain day. Some examples that might help:
- You have a small 20% chance of getting 32° by September 30.
- There is a 50% chance of being hit by a 32° frost starting around October 13
- You have a 80% chance of seeing 32° by October 26
- Said another way, you have a 1 in 5 chance at making it to that day without a 32° night.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
First 16° | Nov 26 | Dec 11 | Dec 22 | Jan 2 | Jan 14 | Jan 31 | -- | -- | -- |
First 20° | Nov 12 | Nov 22 | Nov 30 | Dec 6 | Dec 12 | Dec 19 | Dec 26 | Jan 5 | -- |
First 24° | Oct 27 | Nov 5 | Nov 12 | Nov 17 | Nov 23 | Nov 28 | Dec 4 | Dec 10 | Dec 19 |
First 28° | Oct 12 | Oct 18 | Oct 22 | Oct 26 | Oct 29 | Nov 2 | Nov 5 | Nov 10 | Nov 16 |
First 32° | Sep 23 | Sep 30 | Oct 5 | Oct 9 | Oct 13 | Oct 17 | Oct 21 | Oct 26 | Nov 2 |
First 36° | Sep 7 | Sep 13 | Sep 17 | Sep 21 | Sep 25 | Sep 28 | Oct 2 | Oct 6 | Oct 12 |
Data is provided by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information.