Frost Dates: First and last frost dates for big bear lake, ca
What's a safe temperature for tender plants? When the nightly temperature falls, frost can form, even above 32°, because the air is colder high above the ground and the frost can form up there and then fall down onto your garden and do some damage, even if it's 36° on the ground. So many factors come into play, including wind, concrete, houses, trees and other structures, etc etc etc. Because of all this, you might want to consider 36° as "the danger zone".
In your average springtime, you have a 90% chance that there will be no 36° nights by July 14. In other words, you can pretty much count on being safe from frost by that day. But we want to get those tomatoes in the ground as soon as possible, right? We see that there's still an 80% chance of 36° on June 15, so we don't dare plant that early. We wait a few days and by June 26 we are at the 50/50 point. At this point, we are close and we can start watching the weather forecast. If the upcoming week's forecast doesn't show below 40°, then it's probably okay to risk planting out your plants.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Last 16° | Apr 10 | Apr 2 | Mar 28 | Mar 23 | Mar 18 | Mar 13 | Mar 8 | Mar 3 | Feb 23 |
Last 20° | Apr 26 | Apr 19 | Apr 13 | Apr 9 | Apr 5 | Mar 31 | Mar 27 | Mar 22 | Mar 14 |
Last 24° | May 24 | May 14 | May 8 | May 2 | Apr 27 | Apr 22 | Apr 16 | Apr 10 | Apr 1 |
Last 28° | Jun 9 | Jun 3 | May 30 | May 26 | May 23 | May 19 | May 16 | May 12 | May 6 |
Last 32° | Jun 22 | Jun 17 | Jun 13 | Jun 10 | Jun 7 | Jun 4 | Jun 1 | May 29 | May 24 |
Last 36° | Jul 14 | Jul 8 | Jul 3 | Jun 30 | Jun 26 | Jun 23 | Jun 19 | Jun 15 | Jun 9 |
The charts on this page show the probabilities of receiving a certain temperature on a certain day. Some examples that might help:
- You have a small 20% chance of getting 32° by September 12.
- There is a 50% chance of being hit by a 32° frost starting around September 24
- You have a 80% chance of seeing 32° by October 6
- Said another way, you have a 1 in 5 chance at making it to that day without a 32° night.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
First 16° | Nov 2 | Nov 9 | Nov 15 | Nov 20 | Nov 24 | Nov 29 | Dec 3 | Dec 9 | Dec 17 |
First 20° | Oct 15 | Oct 23 | Oct 29 | Nov 3 | Nov 7 | Nov 12 | Nov 17 | Nov 23 | Dec 1 |
First 24° | Oct 5 | Oct 12 | Oct 16 | Oct 20 | Oct 24 | Oct 28 | Nov 1 | Nov 5 | Nov 12 |
First 28° | Sep 19 | Sep 25 | Sep 29 | Oct 3 | Oct 7 | Oct 10 | Oct 14 | Oct 19 | Oct 25 |
First 32° | Sep 6 | Sep 12 | Sep 16 | Sep 20 | Sep 24 | Sep 27 | Oct 1 | Oct 6 | Oct 12 |
First 36° | Aug 11 | Aug 19 | Aug 24 | Aug 28 | Sep 1 | Sep 5 | Sep 10 | Sep 15 | Sep 22 |
Data is provided by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information.