Frost Dates: First and last frost dates for benavides, tx
What's a safe temperature for tender plants? When the nightly temperature falls, frost can form, even above 32°, because the air is colder high above the ground and the frost can form up there and then fall down onto your garden and do some damage, even if it's 36° on the ground. So many factors come into play, including wind, concrete, houses, trees and other structures, etc etc etc. Because of all this, you might want to consider 36° as "the danger zone".
In your average springtime, you have a 90% chance that there will be no 36° nights by April 5. In other words, you can pretty much count on being safe from frost by that day. But we want to get those tomatoes in the ground as soon as possible, right? We see that there's still an 80% chance of 36° on February 19, so we don't dare plant that early. We wait a few days and by March 9 we are at the 50/50 point. At this point, we are close and we can start watching the weather forecast. If the upcoming week's forecast doesn't show below 40°, then it's probably okay to risk planting out your plants.
| Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 16° | Dec 28 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Last 20° | Jan 7 | Dec 30 | Dec 19 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Last 24° | Feb 13 | Jan 31 | Jan 21 | Jan 11 | Dec 29 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Last 28° | Mar 11 | Feb 25 | Feb 16 | Feb 7 | Jan 30 | Jan 21 | Jan 11 | Dec 29 | -- |
| Last 32° | Mar 29 | Mar 16 | Mar 6 | Feb 26 | Feb 18 | Feb 10 | Feb 2 | Jan 22 | Jan 6 |
| Last 36° | Apr 5 | Mar 26 | Mar 20 | Mar 14 | Mar 9 | Mar 3 | Feb 26 | Feb 19 | Feb 10 |
The charts on this page show the probabilities of receiving a certain temperature on a certain day. Some examples that might help:
- You have a small 20% chance of getting 32° by November 19.
- There is a 50% chance of being hit by a 32° frost starting around December 2
- You have a 80% chance of seeing 32° by December 15
- Said another way, you have a 1 in 5 chance at making it to that day without a 32° night.
| Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| First 16° | Dec 27 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| First 20° | Dec 22 | Jan 1 | Jan 14 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| First 24° | Dec 14 | Dec 21 | Dec 28 | Jan 3 | Jan 10 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| First 28° | Nov 23 | Dec 2 | Dec 8 | Dec 14 | Dec 19 | Dec 25 | Dec 31 | Jan 9 | -- |
| First 32° | Nov 12 | Nov 19 | Nov 24 | Nov 28 | Dec 2 | Dec 6 | Dec 10 | Dec 15 | Dec 23 |
| First 36° | Oct 31 | Nov 7 | Nov 12 | Nov 17 | Nov 21 | Nov 25 | Nov 29 | Dec 4 | Dec 11 |
Data is provided by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information.