Frost Dates: First and last frost dates for academy, sd
The charts on this page show the probabilities of receiving a certain temperature on a certain day. Some examples that might help:
- You have a small 20% chance of getting 32° by September 21.
- There is a 50% chance of being hit by a 32° frost starting around September 28
- You have a 80% chance of seeing 32° by October 6
- Said another way, you have a 1 in 5 chance at making it to that day without a 32° night.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
First 16° | Oct 24 | Oct 30 | Nov 4 | Nov 8 | Nov 12 | Nov 15 | Nov 19 | Nov 24 | Nov 30 |
First 20° | Oct 14 | Oct 19 | Oct 23 | Oct 26 | Oct 29 | Nov 1 | Nov 4 | Nov 7 | Nov 12 |
First 24° | Sep 30 | Oct 6 | Oct 10 | Oct 14 | Oct 17 | Oct 21 | Oct 25 | Oct 29 | Nov 4 |
First 28° | Sep 24 | Sep 29 | Oct 3 | Oct 7 | Oct 10 | Oct 13 | Oct 16 | Oct 20 | Oct 25 |
First 32° | Sep 16 | Sep 21 | Sep 24 | Sep 26 | Sep 28 | Oct 1 | Oct 3 | Oct 6 | Oct 11 |
First 36° | Sep 5 | Sep 10 | Sep 14 | Sep 17 | Sep 20 | Sep 23 | Sep 27 | Oct 1 | Oct 6 |
What's a safe temperature for tender plants? When the nightly temperature falls, frost can form, even above 32°, because the air is colder high above the ground and the frost can form up there and then fall down onto your garden and do some damage, even if it's 36° on the ground. So many factors come into play, including wind, concrete, houses, trees and other structures, etc etc etc. Because of all this, you might want to consider 36° as "the danger zone".
In your average springtime, you have a 90% chance that there will be no 36° nights by May 30. In other words, you can pretty much count on being safe from frost by that day. But we want to get those tomatoes in the ground as soon as possible, right? We see that there's still an 80% chance of 36° on May 4, so we don't dare plant that early. We wait a few days and by May 14 we are at the 50/50 point. At this point, we are close and we can start watching the weather forecast. If the upcoming week's forecast doesn't show below 40°, then it's probably okay to risk planting out your plants.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Last 16° | Apr 12 | Apr 6 | Apr 2 | Mar 30 | Mar 26 | Mar 23 | Mar 20 | Mar 16 | Mar 10 |
Last 20° | Apr 15 | Apr 11 | Apr 8 | Apr 6 | Apr 4 | Apr 2 | Mar 30 | Mar 27 | Mar 24 |
Last 24° | Apr 27 | Apr 22 | Apr 18 | Apr 15 | Apr 12 | Apr 9 | Apr 6 | Apr 2 | Mar 28 |
Last 28° | May 10 | May 5 | May 1 | Apr 28 | Apr 25 | Apr 22 | Apr 18 | Apr 15 | Apr 10 |
Last 32° | May 19 | May 14 | May 10 | May 7 | May 4 | May 1 | Apr 27 | Apr 24 | Apr 18 |
Last 36° | May 30 | May 25 | May 21 | May 17 | May 14 | May 11 | May 8 | May 4 | Apr 28 |
Data is provided by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information.