Frost Dates: First and last frost dates for Winnsboro, LA
What's a safe temperature for tender plants? When the nightly temperature falls, frost can form, even above 32°, because the air is colder high above the ground and the frost can form up there and then fall down onto your garden and do some damage, even if it's 36° on the ground. So many factors come into play, including wind, concrete, houses, trees and other structures, etc etc etc. Because of all this, you might want to consider 36° as "the danger zone".
In your average springtime, you have a 90% chance that there will be no 36° nights by April 12. In other words, you can pretty much count on being safe from frost by that day. But we want to get those tomatoes in the ground as soon as possible, right? We see that there's still an 80% chance of 36° on March 20, so we don't dare plant that early. We wait a few days and by March 29 we are at the 50/50 point. At this point, we are close and we can start watching the weather forecast. If the upcoming week's forecast doesn't show below 40°, then it's probably okay to risk planting out your plants.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Last 16° | Jan 21 | Jan 10 | Dec 30 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
Last 20° | Feb 20 | Feb 9 | Jan 31 | Jan 23 | Jan 15 | Jan 5 | Dec 17 | -- | -- |
Last 24° | Mar 8 | Feb 27 | Feb 20 | Feb 15 | Feb 10 | Feb 5 | Jan 30 | Jan 24 | Jan 15 |
Last 28° | Mar 15 | Mar 8 | Mar 3 | Feb 26 | Feb 22 | Feb 18 | Feb 13 | Feb 8 | Feb 1 |
Last 32° | Apr 3 | Mar 27 | Mar 22 | Mar 18 | Mar 15 | Mar 11 | Mar 7 | Mar 2 | Feb 24 |
Last 36° | Apr 12 | Apr 7 | Apr 4 | Apr 1 | Mar 29 | Mar 26 | Mar 23 | Mar 20 | Mar 15 |
The charts on this page show the probabilities of receiving a certain temperature on a certain day. Some examples that might help:
- You have a small 20% chance of getting 32° by November 1.
- There is a 50% chance of being hit by a 32° frost starting around November 13
- You have a 80% chance of seeing 32° by November 25
- Said another way, you have a 1 in 5 chance at making it to that day without a 32° night.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
First 16° | Dec 25 | Jan 6 | Jan 20 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
First 20° | Dec 10 | Dec 17 | Dec 22 | Dec 27 | Dec 31 | Jan 6 | Jan 17 | -- | -- |
First 24° | Nov 17 | Nov 27 | Dec 5 | Dec 12 | Dec 18 | Dec 24 | Dec 31 | Jan 8 | Jan 18 |
First 28° | Nov 2 | Nov 9 | Nov 14 | Nov 18 | Nov 22 | Nov 26 | Nov 30 | Dec 5 | Dec 12 |
First 32° | Oct 26 | Nov 1 | Nov 6 | Nov 10 | Nov 13 | Nov 17 | Nov 21 | Nov 25 | Dec 2 |
First 36° | Oct 11 | Oct 18 | Oct 23 | Oct 27 | Oct 31 | Nov 4 | Nov 8 | Nov 13 | Nov 20 |
Data is provided by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information.