Frost Dates: First and last frost dates for Williamsburg, IA
The charts on this page show the probabilities of receiving a certain temperature on a certain day. Some examples that might help:
- You have a small 20% chance of getting 32° by September 28.
- There is a 50% chance of being hit by a 32° frost starting around October 6
- You have a 80% chance of seeing 32° by October 14
- Said another way, you have a 1 in 5 chance at making it to that day without a 32° night.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
First 16° | Nov 4 | Nov 9 | Nov 13 | Nov 16 | Nov 19 | Nov 22 | Nov 25 | Nov 29 | Dec 4 |
First 20° | Oct 24 | Oct 29 | Nov 1 | Nov 4 | Nov 7 | Nov 10 | Nov 13 | Nov 16 | Nov 21 |
First 24° | Oct 14 | Oct 19 | Oct 23 | Oct 26 | Oct 29 | Oct 31 | Nov 3 | Nov 7 | Nov 12 |
First 28° | Oct 2 | Oct 7 | Oct 11 | Oct 14 | Oct 17 | Oct 20 | Oct 23 | Oct 27 | Nov 1 |
First 32° | Sep 24 | Sep 28 | Oct 1 | Oct 3 | Oct 6 | Oct 8 | Oct 11 | Oct 14 | Oct 18 |
First 36° | Sep 14 | Sep 18 | Sep 21 | Sep 24 | Sep 26 | Sep 29 | Oct 1 | Oct 4 | Oct 9 |
What's a safe temperature for tender plants? When the nightly temperature falls, frost can form, even above 32°, because the air is colder high above the ground and the frost can form up there and then fall down onto your garden and do some damage, even if it's 36° on the ground. So many factors come into play, including wind, concrete, houses, trees and other structures, etc etc etc. Because of all this, you might want to consider 36° as "the danger zone".
In your average springtime, you have a 90% chance that there will be no 36° nights by May 22. In other words, you can pretty much count on being safe from frost by that day. But we want to get those tomatoes in the ground as soon as possible, right? We see that there's still an 80% chance of 36° on April 28, so we don't dare plant that early. We wait a few days and by May 7 we are at the 50/50 point. At this point, we are close and we can start watching the weather forecast. If the upcoming week's forecast doesn't show below 40°, then it's probably okay to risk planting out your plants.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Last 16° | Apr 3 | Mar 28 | Mar 24 | Mar 20 | Mar 17 | Mar 13 | Mar 10 | Mar 5 | Feb 27 |
Last 20° | Apr 9 | Apr 5 | Apr 2 | Mar 30 | Mar 27 | Mar 25 | Mar 22 | Mar 19 | Mar 14 |
Last 24° | Apr 16 | Apr 13 | Apr 10 | Apr 7 | Apr 5 | Apr 3 | Apr 1 | Mar 29 | Mar 25 |
Last 28° | Apr 24 | Apr 19 | Apr 16 | Apr 14 | Apr 12 | Apr 9 | Apr 7 | Apr 4 | Mar 31 |
Last 32° | May 13 | May 7 | May 3 | Apr 30 | Apr 26 | Apr 23 | Apr 20 | Apr 16 | Apr 10 |
Last 36° | May 22 | May 17 | May 13 | May 10 | May 7 | May 4 | May 1 | Apr 28 | Apr 22 |
Data is provided by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information.