Frost Dates: First and last frost dates for Vienna, VA
What's a safe temperature for tender plants? When the nightly temperature falls, frost can form, even above 32°, because the air is colder high above the ground and the frost can form up there and then fall down onto your garden and do some damage, even if it's 36° on the ground. So many factors come into play, including wind, concrete, houses, trees and other structures, etc etc etc. Because of all this, you might want to consider 36° as "the danger zone".
In your average springtime, you have a 90% chance that there will be no 36° nights by May 12. In other words, you can pretty much count on being safe from frost by that day. But we want to get those tomatoes in the ground as soon as possible, right? We see that there's still an 80% chance of 36° on April 17, so we don't dare plant that early. We wait a few days and by April 27 we are at the 50/50 point. At this point, we are close and we can start watching the weather forecast. If the upcoming week's forecast doesn't show below 40°, then it's probably okay to risk planting out your plants.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Last 16° | Mar 10 | Mar 3 | Feb 25 | Feb 21 | Feb 16 | Feb 12 | Feb 7 | Feb 2 | Jan 25 |
Last 20° | Mar 18 | Mar 12 | Mar 8 | Mar 4 | Mar 1 | Feb 25 | Feb 22 | Feb 17 | Feb 11 |
Last 24° | Mar 28 | Mar 23 | Mar 20 | Mar 17 | Mar 15 | Mar 12 | Mar 10 | Mar 6 | Mar 2 |
Last 28° | Apr 14 | Apr 9 | Apr 5 | Apr 3 | Mar 31 | Mar 28 | Mar 25 | Mar 22 | Mar 17 |
Last 32° | Apr 22 | Apr 18 | Apr 15 | Apr 12 | Apr 10 | Apr 8 | Apr 6 | Apr 3 | Mar 30 |
Last 36° | May 12 | May 7 | May 3 | Apr 30 | Apr 27 | Apr 24 | Apr 21 | Apr 17 | Apr 12 |
The charts on this page show the probabilities of receiving a certain temperature on a certain day. Some examples that might help:
- You have a small 20% chance of getting 32° by November 2.
- There is a 50% chance of being hit by a 32° frost starting around November 7
- You have a 80% chance of seeing 32° by November 12
- Said another way, you have a 1 in 5 chance at making it to that day without a 32° night.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
First 16° | Dec 1 | Dec 11 | Dec 19 | Dec 25 | Dec 31 | Jan 6 | Jan 12 | Jan 20 | Jan 30 |
First 20° | Nov 20 | Nov 28 | Dec 4 | Dec 8 | Dec 13 | Dec 17 | Dec 22 | Dec 27 | Jan 4 |
First 24° | Nov 8 | Nov 14 | Nov 19 | Nov 23 | Nov 27 | Nov 30 | Dec 4 | Dec 9 | Dec 15 |
First 28° | Nov 2 | Nov 7 | Nov 10 | Nov 13 | Nov 15 | Nov 18 | Nov 21 | Nov 24 | Nov 28 |
First 32° | Oct 30 | Nov 2 | Nov 4 | Nov 5 | Nov 7 | Nov 8 | Nov 10 | Nov 12 | Nov 15 |
First 36° | Oct 21 | Oct 25 | Oct 28 | Oct 30 | Nov 2 | Nov 4 | Nov 7 | Nov 10 | Nov 14 |
Data is provided by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information.