Frost Dates: First and last frost dates for Terry, MT
What's a safe temperature for tender plants? When the nightly temperature falls, frost can form, even above 32°, because the air is colder high above the ground and the frost can form up there and then fall down onto your garden and do some damage, even if it's 36° on the ground. So many factors come into play, including wind, concrete, houses, trees and other structures, etc etc etc. Because of all this, you might want to consider 36° as "the danger zone".
In your average springtime, you have a 90% chance that there will be no 36° nights by June 25. In other words, you can pretty much count on being safe from frost by that day. But we want to get those tomatoes in the ground as soon as possible, right? We see that there's still an 80% chance of 36° on May 22, so we don't dare plant that early. We wait a few days and by June 5 we are at the 50/50 point. At this point, we are close and we can start watching the weather forecast. If the upcoming week's forecast doesn't show below 40°, then it's probably okay to risk planting out your plants.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Last 16° | Apr 20 | Apr 15 | Apr 11 | Apr 8 | Apr 5 | Apr 2 | Mar 30 | Mar 26 | Mar 21 |
Last 20° | May 4 | Apr 29 | Apr 25 | Apr 21 | Apr 18 | Apr 15 | Apr 11 | Apr 7 | Apr 2 |
Last 24° | May 10 | May 6 | May 4 | May 1 | Apr 29 | Apr 27 | Apr 24 | Apr 21 | Apr 17 |
Last 28° | May 24 | May 19 | May 15 | May 12 | May 8 | May 5 | May 2 | Apr 28 | Apr 22 |
Last 32° | Jun 11 | Jun 4 | May 30 | May 26 | May 22 | May 18 | May 14 | May 9 | May 2 |
Last 36° | Jun 25 | Jun 18 | Jun 13 | Jun 9 | Jun 5 | Jun 1 | May 27 | May 22 | May 16 |
The charts on this page show the probabilities of receiving a certain temperature on a certain day. Some examples that might help:
- You have a small 20% chance of getting 32° by September 8.
- There is a 50% chance of being hit by a 32° frost starting around September 15
- You have a 80% chance of seeing 32° by September 22
- Said another way, you have a 1 in 5 chance at making it to that day without a 32° night.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
First 16° | Oct 5 | Oct 11 | Oct 15 | Oct 19 | Oct 22 | Oct 25 | Oct 29 | Nov 2 | Nov 8 |
First 20° | Sep 26 | Oct 2 | Oct 6 | Oct 9 | Oct 13 | Oct 16 | Oct 20 | Oct 24 | Oct 30 |
First 24° | Sep 16 | Sep 22 | Sep 26 | Sep 30 | Oct 4 | Oct 7 | Oct 11 | Oct 15 | Oct 21 |
First 28° | Sep 7 | Sep 12 | Sep 15 | Sep 18 | Sep 21 | Sep 24 | Sep 27 | Oct 1 | Oct 6 |
First 32° | Sep 4 | Sep 8 | Sep 11 | Sep 13 | Sep 15 | Sep 17 | Sep 20 | Sep 22 | Sep 26 |
First 36° | Aug 22 | Aug 27 | Aug 31 | Sep 3 | Sep 6 | Sep 9 | Sep 12 | Sep 16 | Sep 21 |
Data is provided by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information.