Frost Dates: First and last frost dates for Stambaugh, MI
The charts on this page show the probabilities of receiving a certain temperature on a certain day. Some examples that might help:
- You have a small 20% chance of getting 32° by August 24.
- There is a 50% chance of being hit by a 32° frost starting around September 3
- You have a 80% chance of seeing 32° by September 14
- Said another way, you have a 1 in 5 chance at making it to that day without a 32° night.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
First 16° | Oct 14 | Oct 19 | Oct 24 | Oct 27 | Oct 30 | Nov 3 | Nov 6 | Nov 10 | Nov 16 |
First 20° | Sep 26 | Oct 2 | Oct 7 | Oct 10 | Oct 14 | Oct 18 | Oct 22 | Oct 26 | Nov 2 |
First 24° | Sep 21 | Sep 26 | Sep 30 | Oct 3 | Oct 5 | Oct 8 | Oct 11 | Oct 15 | Oct 20 |
First 28° | Sep 7 | Sep 11 | Sep 14 | Sep 16 | Sep 19 | Sep 21 | Sep 24 | Sep 26 | Sep 30 |
First 32° | Aug 18 | Aug 24 | Aug 28 | Aug 31 | Sep 3 | Sep 6 | Sep 10 | Sep 14 | Sep 19 |
First 36° | Aug 3 | Aug 9 | Aug 13 | Aug 17 | Aug 21 | Aug 24 | Aug 28 | Sep 1 | Sep 7 |
What's a safe temperature for tender plants? When the nightly temperature falls, frost can form, even above 32°, because the air is colder high above the ground and the frost can form up there and then fall down onto your garden and do some damage, even if it's 36° on the ground. So many factors come into play, including wind, concrete, houses, trees and other structures, etc etc etc. Because of all this, you might want to consider 36° as "the danger zone".
In your average springtime, you have a 90% chance that there will be no 36° nights by July 25. In other words, you can pretty much count on being safe from frost by that day. But we want to get those tomatoes in the ground as soon as possible, right? We see that there's still an 80% chance of 36° on June 15, so we don't dare plant that early. We wait a few days and by July 1 we are at the 50/50 point. At this point, we are close and we can start watching the weather forecast. If the upcoming week's forecast doesn't show below 40°, then it's probably okay to risk planting out your plants.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Last 16° | Apr 26 | Apr 22 | Apr 19 | Apr 16 | Apr 14 | Apr 12 | Apr 9 | Apr 7 | Apr 3 |
Last 20° | May 10 | May 6 | May 2 | Apr 30 | Apr 27 | Apr 25 | Apr 22 | Apr 19 | Apr 14 |
Last 24° | May 21 | May 16 | May 13 | May 11 | May 8 | May 6 | May 3 | Apr 30 | Apr 25 |
Last 28° | Jun 10 | Jun 5 | Jun 2 | May 30 | May 28 | May 25 | May 22 | May 19 | May 15 |
Last 32° | Jul 4 | Jun 27 | Jun 22 | Jun 18 | Jun 14 | Jun 10 | Jun 5 | May 31 | May 24 |
Last 36° | Jul 25 | Jul 16 | Jul 11 | Jul 6 | Jul 1 | Jun 26 | Jun 21 | Jun 15 | Jun 7 |
Data is provided by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information.