Frost Dates: First and last frost dates for Sage, WY
What's a safe temperature for tender plants? When the nightly temperature falls, frost can form, even above 32°, because the air is colder high above the ground and the frost can form up there and then fall down onto your garden and do some damage, even if it's 36° on the ground. So many factors come into play, including wind, concrete, houses, trees and other structures, etc etc etc. Because of all this, you might want to consider 36° as "the danger zone".
In your average springtime, you have a 90% chance that there will be no 36° nights by August 5. In other words, you can pretty much count on being safe from frost by that day. But we want to get those tomatoes in the ground as soon as possible, right? We see that there's still an 80% chance of 36° on July 12, so we don't dare plant that early. We wait a few days and by July 22 we are at the 50/50 point. At this point, we are close and we can start watching the weather forecast. If the upcoming week's forecast doesn't show below 40°, then it's probably okay to risk planting out your plants.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Last 16° | May 18 | May 12 | May 7 | May 3 | Apr 29 | Apr 25 | Apr 21 | Apr 16 | Apr 10 |
Last 20° | Jun 4 | May 27 | May 22 | May 18 | May 14 | May 9 | May 5 | Apr 30 | Apr 22 |
Last 24° | Jun 26 | Jun 18 | Jun 11 | Jun 6 | Jun 1 | May 27 | May 21 | May 15 | May 6 |
Last 28° | Jul 7 | Jun 30 | Jun 25 | Jun 21 | Jun 17 | Jun 13 | Jun 9 | Jun 4 | May 28 |
Last 32° | Jul 23 | Jul 17 | Jul 13 | Jul 9 | Jul 6 | Jul 3 | Jun 29 | Jun 25 | Jun 19 |
Last 36° | Aug 5 | Jul 31 | Jul 27 | Jul 24 | Jul 22 | Jul 19 | Jul 16 | Jul 12 | Jul 8 |
The charts on this page show the probabilities of receiving a certain temperature on a certain day. Some examples that might help:
- You have a small 20% chance of getting 32° by August 8.
- There is a 50% chance of being hit by a 32° frost starting around August 21
- You have a 80% chance of seeing 32° by September 4
- Said another way, you have a 1 in 5 chance at making it to that day without a 32° night.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
First 16° | Sep 25 | Oct 2 | Oct 7 | Oct 11 | Oct 14 | Oct 18 | Oct 22 | Oct 27 | Nov 2 |
First 20° | Sep 17 | Sep 22 | Sep 26 | Sep 29 | Oct 2 | Oct 5 | Oct 8 | Oct 12 | Oct 17 |
First 24° | Sep 2 | Sep 8 | Sep 12 | Sep 16 | Sep 20 | Sep 23 | Sep 27 | Oct 1 | Oct 8 |
First 28° | Aug 16 | Aug 23 | Aug 28 | Sep 2 | Sep 6 | Sep 10 | Sep 14 | Sep 20 | Sep 27 |
First 32° | Aug 1 | Aug 8 | Aug 13 | Aug 17 | Aug 21 | Aug 25 | Aug 30 | Sep 4 | Sep 10 |
First 36° | Jul 28 | Jul 31 | Aug 3 | Aug 5 | Aug 8 | Aug 10 | Aug 13 | Aug 16 | Aug 20 |
Data is provided by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information.