Frost Dates: First and last frost dates for Rockville, MD
What's a safe temperature for tender plants? When the nightly temperature falls, frost can form, even above 32°, because the air is colder high above the ground and the frost can form up there and then fall down onto your garden and do some damage, even if it's 36° on the ground. So many factors come into play, including wind, concrete, houses, trees and other structures, etc etc etc. Because of all this, you might want to consider 36° as "the danger zone".
In your average springtime, you have a 90% chance that there will be no 36° nights by May 21. In other words, you can pretty much count on being safe from frost by that day. But we want to get those tomatoes in the ground as soon as possible, right? We see that there's still an 80% chance of 36° on April 15, so we don't dare plant that early. We wait a few days and by April 29 we are at the 50/50 point. At this point, we are close and we can start watching the weather forecast. If the upcoming week's forecast doesn't show below 40°, then it's probably okay to risk planting out your plants.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Last 16° | Mar 25 | Mar 15 | Mar 7 | Mar 1 | Feb 23 | Feb 18 | Feb 11 | Feb 4 | Jan 25 |
Last 20° | Mar 31 | Mar 25 | Mar 20 | Mar 16 | Mar 12 | Mar 8 | Mar 4 | Feb 27 | Feb 21 |
Last 24° | Apr 11 | Apr 5 | Mar 31 | Mar 27 | Mar 24 | Mar 20 | Mar 16 | Mar 12 | Mar 6 |
Last 28° | Apr 23 | Apr 16 | Apr 12 | Apr 8 | Apr 4 | Mar 31 | Mar 27 | Mar 23 | Mar 17 |
Last 32° | May 7 | Apr 30 | Apr 25 | Apr 20 | Apr 16 | Apr 12 | Apr 8 | Apr 2 | Mar 26 |
Last 36° | May 21 | May 13 | May 8 | May 3 | Apr 29 | Apr 25 | Apr 20 | Apr 15 | Apr 7 |
The charts on this page show the probabilities of receiving a certain temperature on a certain day. Some examples that might help:
- You have a small 20% chance of getting 32° by October 9.
- There is a 50% chance of being hit by a 32° frost starting around October 21
- You have a 80% chance of seeing 32° by November 3
- Said another way, you have a 1 in 5 chance at making it to that day without a 32° night.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
First 16° | Nov 24 | Dec 2 | Dec 7 | Dec 12 | Dec 16 | Dec 20 | Dec 25 | Dec 30 | Jan 6 |
First 20° | Nov 6 | Nov 15 | Nov 21 | Nov 26 | Dec 1 | Dec 6 | Dec 12 | Dec 18 | Dec 27 |
First 24° | Oct 21 | Oct 30 | Nov 6 | Nov 12 | Nov 17 | Nov 23 | Nov 28 | Dec 5 | Dec 15 |
First 28° | Oct 12 | Oct 19 | Oct 24 | Oct 28 | Nov 1 | Nov 5 | Nov 9 | Nov 14 | Nov 21 |
First 32° | Oct 3 | Oct 9 | Oct 14 | Oct 18 | Oct 21 | Oct 25 | Oct 29 | Nov 3 | Nov 9 |
First 36° | Sep 23 | Sep 29 | Oct 3 | Oct 7 | Oct 10 | Oct 14 | Oct 17 | Oct 22 | Oct 28 |
Data is provided by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information.