Frost Dates: First and last frost dates for Raymond Border Stn, MT
What's a safe temperature for tender plants? When the nightly temperature falls, frost can form, even above 32°, because the air is colder high above the ground and the frost can form up there and then fall down onto your garden and do some damage, even if it's 36° on the ground. So many factors come into play, including wind, concrete, houses, trees and other structures, etc etc etc. Because of all this, you might want to consider 36° as "the danger zone".
In your average springtime, you have a 90% chance that there will be no 36° nights by July 8. In other words, you can pretty much count on being safe from frost by that day. But we want to get those tomatoes in the ground as soon as possible, right? We see that there's still an 80% chance of 36° on June 3, so we don't dare plant that early. We wait a few days and by June 17 we are at the 50/50 point. At this point, we are close and we can start watching the weather forecast. If the upcoming week's forecast doesn't show below 40°, then it's probably okay to risk planting out your plants.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Last 16° | Apr 22 | Apr 16 | Apr 12 | Apr 9 | Apr 5 | Apr 2 | Mar 30 | Mar 26 | Mar 20 |
Last 20° | Apr 29 | Apr 24 | Apr 20 | Apr 17 | Apr 14 | Apr 11 | Apr 8 | Apr 5 | Mar 31 |
Last 24° | May 12 | May 7 | May 3 | Apr 30 | Apr 27 | Apr 24 | Apr 20 | Apr 17 | Apr 11 |
Last 28° | May 27 | May 22 | May 18 | May 16 | May 13 | May 10 | May 7 | May 4 | Apr 29 |
Last 32° | Jun 20 | Jun 13 | Jun 8 | Jun 4 | May 31 | May 27 | May 22 | May 17 | May 10 |
Last 36° | Jul 8 | Jun 30 | Jun 25 | Jun 21 | Jun 17 | Jun 12 | Jun 8 | Jun 3 | May 27 |
The charts on this page show the probabilities of receiving a certain temperature on a certain day. Some examples that might help:
- You have a small 20% chance of getting 32° by September 8.
- There is a 50% chance of being hit by a 32° frost starting around September 16
- You have a 80% chance of seeing 32° by September 23
- Said another way, you have a 1 in 5 chance at making it to that day without a 32° night.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
First 16° | Oct 8 | Oct 13 | Oct 17 | Oct 21 | Oct 24 | Oct 27 | Oct 31 | Nov 4 | Nov 10 |
First 20° | Sep 25 | Oct 1 | Oct 5 | Oct 9 | Oct 13 | Oct 16 | Oct 20 | Oct 25 | Oct 31 |
First 24° | Sep 18 | Sep 23 | Sep 27 | Sep 30 | Oct 4 | Oct 7 | Oct 10 | Oct 14 | Oct 19 |
First 28° | Sep 12 | Sep 16 | Sep 19 | Sep 22 | Sep 24 | Sep 27 | Sep 29 | Oct 2 | Oct 6 |
First 32° | Sep 4 | Sep 8 | Sep 11 | Sep 13 | Sep 16 | Sep 18 | Sep 20 | Sep 23 | Sep 27 |
First 36° | Aug 16 | Aug 22 | Aug 27 | Aug 30 | Sep 3 | Sep 6 | Sep 10 | Sep 14 | Sep 20 |
Data is provided by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information.