Frost Dates: First and last frost dates for Philadelphia, PA
What's a safe temperature for tender plants? When the nightly temperature falls, frost can form, even above 32°, because the air is colder high above the ground and the frost can form up there and then fall down onto your garden and do some damage, even if it's 36° on the ground. So many factors come into play, including wind, concrete, houses, trees and other structures, etc etc etc. Because of all this, you might want to consider 36° as "the danger zone".
In your average springtime, you have a 90% chance that there will be no 36° nights by April 27. In other words, you can pretty much count on being safe from frost by that day. But we want to get those tomatoes in the ground as soon as possible, right? We see that there's still an 80% chance of 36° on April 7, so we don't dare plant that early. We wait a few days and by April 15 we are at the 50/50 point. At this point, we are close and we can start watching the weather forecast. If the upcoming week's forecast doesn't show below 40°, then it's probably okay to risk planting out your plants.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Last 16° | Mar 13 | Mar 5 | Feb 27 | Feb 22 | Feb 18 | Feb 13 | Feb 8 | Feb 3 | Jan 26 |
Last 20° | Mar 24 | Mar 18 | Mar 14 | Mar 10 | Mar 6 | Mar 3 | Feb 27 | Feb 23 | Feb 16 |
Last 24° | Mar 30 | Mar 25 | Mar 21 | Mar 18 | Mar 15 | Mar 12 | Mar 9 | Mar 5 | Feb 28 |
Last 28° | Apr 9 | Apr 4 | Apr 1 | Mar 29 | Mar 26 | Mar 23 | Mar 20 | Mar 16 | Mar 11 |
Last 32° | Apr 19 | Apr 14 | Apr 11 | Apr 8 | Apr 6 | Apr 3 | Apr 1 | Mar 29 | Mar 24 |
Last 36° | Apr 27 | Apr 23 | Apr 20 | Apr 18 | Apr 15 | Apr 13 | Apr 10 | Apr 7 | Apr 3 |
The charts on this page show the probabilities of receiving a certain temperature on a certain day. Some examples that might help:
- You have a small 20% chance of getting 32° by October 25.
- There is a 50% chance of being hit by a 32° frost starting around November 4
- You have a 80% chance of seeing 32° by November 13
- Said another way, you have a 1 in 5 chance at making it to that day without a 32° night.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
First 16° | Dec 10 | Dec 17 | Dec 22 | Dec 27 | Dec 31 | Jan 4 | Jan 8 | Jan 13 | Jan 21 |
First 20° | Nov 28 | Dec 4 | Dec 8 | Dec 12 | Dec 15 | Dec 18 | Dec 21 | Dec 26 | Dec 31 |
First 24° | Nov 16 | Nov 22 | Nov 25 | Nov 29 | Dec 2 | Dec 5 | Dec 8 | Dec 12 | Dec 17 |
First 28° | Nov 3 | Nov 9 | Nov 12 | Nov 16 | Nov 19 | Nov 22 | Nov 25 | Nov 29 | Dec 5 |
First 32° | Oct 20 | Oct 25 | Oct 29 | Nov 1 | Nov 4 | Nov 7 | Nov 10 | Nov 13 | Nov 18 |
First 36° | Oct 12 | Oct 17 | Oct 20 | Oct 23 | Oct 26 | Oct 29 | Nov 1 | Nov 4 | Nov 9 |
Data is provided by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information.