Frost Dates: First and last frost dates for Morganton, NC
What's a safe temperature for tender plants? When the nightly temperature falls, frost can form, even above 32°, because the air is colder high above the ground and the frost can form up there and then fall down onto your garden and do some damage, even if it's 36° on the ground. So many factors come into play, including wind, concrete, houses, trees and other structures, etc etc etc. Because of all this, you might want to consider 36° as "the danger zone".
In your average springtime, you have a 90% chance that there will be no 36° nights by May 16. In other words, you can pretty much count on being safe from frost by that day. But we want to get those tomatoes in the ground as soon as possible, right? We see that there's still an 80% chance of 36° on April 23, so we don't dare plant that early. We wait a few days and by May 2 we are at the 50/50 point. At this point, we are close and we can start watching the weather forecast. If the upcoming week's forecast doesn't show below 40°, then it's probably okay to risk planting out your plants.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Last 16° | Mar 14 | Mar 5 | Feb 27 | Feb 22 | Feb 17 | Feb 11 | Feb 6 | Jan 31 | Jan 22 |
Last 20° | Mar 25 | Mar 18 | Mar 12 | Mar 8 | Mar 3 | Feb 27 | Feb 22 | Feb 16 | Feb 9 |
Last 24° | Apr 9 | Apr 1 | Mar 27 | Mar 22 | Mar 18 | Mar 13 | Mar 9 | Mar 3 | Feb 24 |
Last 28° | Apr 21 | Apr 15 | Apr 11 | Apr 7 | Apr 3 | Mar 31 | Mar 27 | Mar 23 | Mar 17 |
Last 32° | May 4 | Apr 29 | Apr 25 | Apr 21 | Apr 18 | Apr 15 | Apr 12 | Apr 7 | Apr 2 |
Last 36° | May 16 | May 11 | May 8 | May 5 | May 2 | Apr 29 | Apr 26 | Apr 23 | Apr 18 |
The charts on this page show the probabilities of receiving a certain temperature on a certain day. Some examples that might help:
- You have a small 20% chance of getting 32° by October 8.
- There is a 50% chance of being hit by a 32° frost starting around October 16
- You have a 80% chance of seeing 32° by October 24
- Said another way, you have a 1 in 5 chance at making it to that day without a 32° night.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
First 16° | Nov 17 | Nov 27 | Dec 4 | Dec 10 | Dec 16 | Dec 21 | Dec 27 | Jan 3 | Jan 13 |
First 20° | Nov 6 | Nov 12 | Nov 17 | Nov 21 | Nov 24 | Nov 28 | Dec 2 | Dec 7 | Dec 13 |
First 24° | Oct 30 | Nov 5 | Nov 9 | Nov 12 | Nov 15 | Nov 18 | Nov 21 | Nov 25 | Nov 30 |
First 28° | Oct 15 | Oct 20 | Oct 24 | Oct 27 | Oct 30 | Nov 2 | Nov 5 | Nov 9 | Nov 14 |
First 32° | Oct 4 | Oct 8 | Oct 11 | Oct 14 | Oct 16 | Oct 19 | Oct 21 | Oct 24 | Oct 28 |
First 36° | Sep 24 | Sep 28 | Oct 2 | Oct 4 | Oct 7 | Oct 10 | Oct 13 | Oct 16 | Oct 21 |
Data is provided by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information.