Frost Dates: First and last frost dates for Merced, CA
What's a safe temperature for tender plants? When the nightly temperature falls, frost can form, even above 32°, because the air is colder high above the ground and the frost can form up there and then fall down onto your garden and do some damage, even if it's 36° on the ground. So many factors come into play, including wind, concrete, houses, trees and other structures, etc etc etc. Because of all this, you might want to consider 36° as "the danger zone".
In your average springtime, you have a 90% chance that there will be no 36° nights by May 4. In other words, you can pretty much count on being safe from frost by that day. But we want to get those tomatoes in the ground as soon as possible, right? We see that there's still an 80% chance of 36° on March 17, so we don't dare plant that early. We wait a few days and by April 5 we are at the 50/50 point. At this point, we are close and we can start watching the weather forecast. If the upcoming week's forecast doesn't show below 40°, then it's probably okay to risk planting out your plants.
| Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 16° | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Last 20° | Jan 5 | Dec 15 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Last 24° | Feb 7 | Jan 23 | Jan 10 | Dec 28 | Dec 5 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Last 28° | Mar 16 | Mar 2 | Feb 19 | Feb 10 | Feb 1 | Jan 23 | Jan 14 | Jan 2 | Dec 15 |
| Last 32° | Apr 10 | Mar 29 | Mar 20 | Mar 12 | Mar 5 | Feb 26 | Feb 18 | Feb 9 | Jan 28 |
| Last 36° | May 4 | Apr 24 | Apr 17 | Apr 11 | Apr 5 | Mar 30 | Mar 24 | Mar 17 | Mar 7 |
The charts on this page show the probabilities of receiving a certain temperature on a certain day. Some examples that might help:
- You have a small 20% chance of getting 32° by November 4.
- There is a 50% chance of being hit by a 32° frost starting around November 16
- You have a 80% chance of seeing 32° by November 28
- Said another way, you have a 1 in 5 chance at making it to that day without a 32° night.
| Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| First 16° | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| First 20° | Dec 21 | Jan 11 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| First 24° | Dec 8 | Dec 20 | Dec 30 | Jan 11 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| First 28° | Nov 14 | Nov 22 | Nov 28 | Dec 3 | Dec 8 | Dec 12 | Dec 18 | Dec 24 | Jan 2 |
| First 32° | Oct 29 | Nov 4 | Nov 9 | Nov 13 | Nov 16 | Nov 20 | Nov 23 | Nov 28 | Dec 4 |
| First 36° | Oct 6 | Oct 15 | Oct 22 | Oct 27 | Nov 2 | Nov 7 | Nov 13 | Nov 19 | Nov 28 |
Data is provided by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information.