Frost Dates: First and last frost dates for Long Branch Oakhurst, NJ
What's a safe temperature for tender plants? When the nightly temperature falls, frost can form, even above 32°, because the air is colder high above the ground and the frost can form up there and then fall down onto your garden and do some damage, even if it's 36° on the ground. So many factors come into play, including wind, concrete, houses, trees and other structures, etc etc etc. Because of all this, you might want to consider 36° as "the danger zone".
In your average springtime, you have a 90% chance that there will be no 36° nights by May 14. In other words, you can pretty much count on being safe from frost by that day. But we want to get those tomatoes in the ground as soon as possible, right? We see that there's still an 80% chance of 36° on April 19, so we don't dare plant that early. We wait a few days and by April 29 we are at the 50/50 point. At this point, we are close and we can start watching the weather forecast. If the upcoming week's forecast doesn't show below 40°, then it's probably okay to risk planting out your plants.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Last 16° | Mar 18 | Mar 9 | Mar 3 | Feb 26 | Feb 22 | Feb 17 | Feb 11 | Feb 5 | Jan 26 |
Last 20° | Mar 30 | Mar 23 | Mar 19 | Mar 15 | Mar 12 | Mar 8 | Mar 4 | Feb 28 | Feb 22 |
Last 24° | Apr 5 | Mar 31 | Mar 27 | Mar 24 | Mar 22 | Mar 19 | Mar 16 | Mar 12 | Mar 8 |
Last 28° | Apr 18 | Apr 12 | Apr 8 | Apr 4 | Apr 1 | Mar 28 | Mar 25 | Mar 20 | Mar 15 |
Last 32° | May 2 | Apr 26 | Apr 22 | Apr 19 | Apr 16 | Apr 13 | Apr 9 | Apr 5 | Mar 31 |
Last 36° | May 14 | May 9 | May 5 | May 2 | Apr 29 | Apr 26 | Apr 22 | Apr 19 | Apr 14 |
The charts on this page show the probabilities of receiving a certain temperature on a certain day. Some examples that might help:
- You have a small 20% chance of getting 32° by October 17.
- There is a 50% chance of being hit by a 32° frost starting around October 27
- You have a 80% chance of seeing 32° by November 5
- Said another way, you have a 1 in 5 chance at making it to that day without a 32° night.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
First 16° | Dec 7 | Dec 12 | Dec 16 | Dec 20 | Dec 23 | Dec 27 | Dec 30 | Jan 4 | Jan 10 |
First 20° | Nov 17 | Nov 24 | Nov 29 | Dec 3 | Dec 7 | Dec 11 | Dec 15 | Dec 20 | Dec 27 |
First 24° | Nov 8 | Nov 14 | Nov 18 | Nov 22 | Nov 25 | Nov 29 | Dec 3 | Dec 7 | Dec 13 |
First 28° | Oct 23 | Oct 28 | Nov 1 | Nov 5 | Nov 8 | Nov 11 | Nov 15 | Nov 18 | Nov 24 |
First 32° | Oct 12 | Oct 17 | Oct 21 | Oct 24 | Oct 27 | Oct 30 | Nov 2 | Nov 5 | Nov 10 |
First 36° | Oct 2 | Oct 7 | Oct 11 | Oct 15 | Oct 18 | Oct 21 | Oct 24 | Oct 28 | Nov 3 |
Data is provided by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information.