Frost Dates: First and last frost dates for Lexington, NC
What's a safe temperature for tender plants? When the nightly temperature falls, frost can form, even above 32°, because the air is colder high above the ground and the frost can form up there and then fall down onto your garden and do some damage, even if it's 36° on the ground. So many factors come into play, including wind, concrete, houses, trees and other structures, etc etc etc. Because of all this, you might want to consider 36° as "the danger zone".
In your average springtime, you have a 90% chance that there will be no 36° nights by May 10. In other words, you can pretty much count on being safe from frost by that day. But we want to get those tomatoes in the ground as soon as possible, right? We see that there's still an 80% chance of 36° on April 13, so we don't dare plant that early. We wait a few days and by April 24 we are at the 50/50 point. At this point, we are close and we can start watching the weather forecast. If the upcoming week's forecast doesn't show below 40°, then it's probably okay to risk planting out your plants.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Last 16° | Mar 10 | Feb 27 | Feb 19 | Feb 13 | Feb 6 | Jan 31 | Jan 24 | Jan 15 | Jan 2 |
Last 20° | Mar 20 | Mar 12 | Mar 6 | Mar 2 | Feb 25 | Feb 21 | Feb 16 | Feb 10 | Feb 3 |
Last 24° | Apr 3 | Mar 27 | Mar 22 | Mar 18 | Mar 14 | Mar 10 | Mar 6 | Mar 1 | Feb 23 |
Last 28° | Apr 19 | Apr 11 | Apr 5 | Apr 1 | Mar 27 | Mar 23 | Mar 18 | Mar 13 | Mar 5 |
Last 32° | Apr 28 | Apr 22 | Apr 18 | Apr 14 | Apr 11 | Apr 7 | Apr 4 | Mar 30 | Mar 24 |
Last 36° | May 10 | May 5 | Apr 30 | Apr 27 | Apr 24 | Apr 20 | Apr 17 | Apr 13 | Apr 7 |
The charts on this page show the probabilities of receiving a certain temperature on a certain day. Some examples that might help:
- You have a small 20% chance of getting 32° by October 12.
- There is a 50% chance of being hit by a 32° frost starting around October 21
- You have a 80% chance of seeing 32° by October 30
- Said another way, you have a 1 in 5 chance at making it to that day without a 32° night.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
First 16° | Nov 29 | Dec 7 | Dec 13 | Dec 19 | Dec 24 | Dec 29 | Jan 3 | Jan 10 | Jan 20 |
First 20° | Nov 16 | Nov 23 | Nov 29 | Dec 3 | Dec 8 | Dec 12 | Dec 16 | Dec 22 | Dec 29 |
First 24° | Nov 7 | Nov 12 | Nov 15 | Nov 18 | Nov 21 | Nov 24 | Nov 27 | Dec 1 | Dec 6 |
First 28° | Oct 21 | Oct 26 | Oct 30 | Nov 2 | Nov 5 | Nov 8 | Nov 12 | Nov 15 | Nov 21 |
First 32° | Oct 7 | Oct 12 | Oct 16 | Oct 19 | Oct 21 | Oct 24 | Oct 27 | Oct 30 | Nov 4 |
First 36° | Oct 2 | Oct 6 | Oct 9 | Oct 11 | Oct 13 | Oct 16 | Oct 18 | Oct 21 | Oct 25 |
Data is provided by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information.