Frost Dates: First and last frost dates for Laredo, TX
What's a safe temperature for tender plants? When the nightly temperature falls, frost can form, even above 32°, because the air is colder high above the ground and the frost can form up there and then fall down onto your garden and do some damage, even if it's 36° on the ground. So many factors come into play, including wind, concrete, houses, trees and other structures, etc etc etc. Because of all this, you might want to consider 36° as "the danger zone".
In your average springtime, you have a 90% chance that there will be no 36° nights by March 21. In other words, you can pretty much count on being safe from frost by that day. But we want to get those tomatoes in the ground as soon as possible, right? We see that there's still an 80% chance of 36° on February 8, so we don't dare plant that early. We wait a few days and by February 24 we are at the 50/50 point. At this point, we are close and we can start watching the weather forecast. If the upcoming week's forecast doesn't show below 40°, then it's probably okay to risk planting out your plants.
| Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 16° | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Last 20° | Jan 6 | Dec 17 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Last 24° | Feb 1 | Jan 21 | Jan 11 | Jan 1 | Dec 15 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Last 28° | Mar 5 | Feb 19 | Feb 10 | Feb 1 | Jan 23 | Jan 14 | Jan 3 | Dec 13 | -- |
| Last 32° | Mar 10 | Feb 28 | Feb 21 | Feb 15 | Feb 9 | Feb 3 | Jan 28 | Jan 21 | Jan 11 |
| Last 36° | Mar 21 | Mar 12 | Mar 6 | Mar 1 | Feb 24 | Feb 19 | Feb 14 | Feb 8 | Jan 30 |
The charts on this page show the probabilities of receiving a certain temperature on a certain day. Some examples that might help:
- You have a small 20% chance of getting 32° by November 20.
- There is a 50% chance of being hit by a 32° frost starting around December 5
- You have a 80% chance of seeing 32° by December 21
- Said another way, you have a 1 in 5 chance at making it to that day without a 32° night.
| Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| First 16° | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| First 20° | Dec 23 | Jan 8 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| First 24° | Dec 15 | Dec 24 | Jan 1 | Jan 9 | Jan 24 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| First 28° | Nov 25 | Dec 5 | Dec 11 | Dec 17 | Dec 23 | Dec 30 | Jan 7 | Jan 22 | -- |
| First 32° | Nov 12 | Nov 20 | Nov 26 | Dec 1 | Dec 5 | Dec 10 | Dec 15 | Dec 21 | Dec 29 |
| First 36° | Nov 7 | Nov 13 | Nov 17 | Nov 21 | Nov 25 | Nov 28 | Dec 2 | Dec 7 | Dec 13 |
Data is provided by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information.