Frost Dates: First and last frost dates for Lake Arthur, LA
What's a safe temperature for tender plants? When the nightly temperature falls, frost can form, even above 32°, because the air is colder high above the ground and the frost can form up there and then fall down onto your garden and do some damage, even if it's 36° on the ground. So many factors come into play, including wind, concrete, houses, trees and other structures, etc etc etc. Because of all this, you might want to consider 36° as "the danger zone".
In your average springtime, you have a 90% chance that there will be no 36° nights by March 24. In other words, you can pretty much count on being safe from frost by that day. But we want to get those tomatoes in the ground as soon as possible, right? We see that there's still an 80% chance of 36° on February 16, so we don't dare plant that early. We wait a few days and by March 2 we are at the 50/50 point. At this point, we are close and we can start watching the weather forecast. If the upcoming week's forecast doesn't show below 40°, then it's probably okay to risk planting out your plants.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Last 16° | Dec 27 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
Last 20° | Jan 15 | Dec 27 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
Last 24° | Feb 3 | Jan 21 | Jan 11 | Dec 29 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
Last 28° | Feb 28 | Feb 18 | Feb 10 | Feb 4 | Jan 28 | Jan 22 | Jan 14 | Jan 4 | -- |
Last 32° | Mar 11 | Mar 2 | Feb 24 | Feb 19 | Feb 14 | Feb 8 | Feb 3 | Jan 27 | Jan 16 |
Last 36° | Mar 24 | Mar 16 | Mar 11 | Mar 6 | Mar 2 | Feb 26 | Feb 21 | Feb 16 | Feb 8 |
The charts on this page show the probabilities of receiving a certain temperature on a certain day. Some examples that might help:
- You have a small 20% chance of getting 32° by November 23.
- There is a 50% chance of being hit by a 32° frost starting around December 10
- You have a 80% chance of seeing 32° by December 27
- Said another way, you have a 1 in 5 chance at making it to that day without a 32° night.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
First 16° | Jan 14 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
First 20° | Jan 6 | Jan 25 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
First 24° | Dec 23 | Jan 3 | Jan 13 | Jan 23 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
First 28° | Nov 25 | Dec 7 | Dec 15 | Dec 23 | Dec 30 | Jan 6 | Jan 15 | Jan 26 | -- |
First 32° | Nov 15 | Nov 23 | Nov 30 | Dec 5 | Dec 10 | Dec 15 | Dec 20 | Dec 27 | Jan 6 |
First 36° | Nov 5 | Nov 10 | Nov 14 | Nov 18 | Nov 21 | Nov 24 | Nov 27 | Dec 1 | Dec 7 |
Data is provided by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information.