Frost Dates: First and last frost dates for Lafayette Fcwos, LA
What's a safe temperature for tender plants? When the nightly temperature falls, frost can form, even above 32°, because the air is colder high above the ground and the frost can form up there and then fall down onto your garden and do some damage, even if it's 36° on the ground. So many factors come into play, including wind, concrete, houses, trees and other structures, etc etc etc. Because of all this, you might want to consider 36° as "the danger zone".
In your average springtime, you have a 90% chance that there will be no 36° nights by March 27. In other words, you can pretty much count on being safe from frost by that day. But we want to get those tomatoes in the ground as soon as possible, right? We see that there's still an 80% chance of 36° on February 17, so we don't dare plant that early. We wait a few days and by March 4 we are at the 50/50 point. At this point, we are close and we can start watching the weather forecast. If the upcoming week's forecast doesn't show below 40°, then it's probably okay to risk planting out your plants.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Last 16° | Jan 8 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
Last 20° | Jan 15 | Dec 28 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
Last 24° | Feb 8 | Jan 26 | Jan 16 | Jan 5 | Dec 17 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
Last 28° | Mar 2 | Feb 18 | Feb 10 | Feb 3 | Jan 27 | Jan 20 | Jan 12 | Jan 1 | -- |
Last 32° | Mar 17 | Mar 8 | Mar 1 | Feb 23 | Feb 18 | Feb 13 | Feb 7 | Jan 31 | Jan 22 |
Last 36° | Mar 27 | Mar 19 | Mar 14 | Mar 9 | Mar 4 | Feb 28 | Feb 23 | Feb 17 | Feb 9 |
The charts on this page show the probabilities of receiving a certain temperature on a certain day. Some examples that might help:
- You have a small 20% chance of getting 32° by November 20.
- There is a 50% chance of being hit by a 32° frost starting around December 3
- You have a 80% chance of seeing 32° by December 15
- Said another way, you have a 1 in 5 chance at making it to that day without a 32° night.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
First 16° | Jan 15 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
First 20° | Jan 3 | Jan 24 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
First 24° | Dec 17 | Dec 27 | Jan 5 | Jan 14 | Jan 26 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
First 28° | Nov 26 | Dec 6 | Dec 14 | Dec 21 | Dec 27 | Jan 3 | Jan 10 | Jan 21 | -- |
First 32° | Nov 13 | Nov 20 | Nov 25 | Nov 29 | Dec 3 | Dec 6 | Dec 10 | Dec 15 | Dec 22 |
First 36° | Nov 1 | Nov 7 | Nov 10 | Nov 14 | Nov 17 | Nov 20 | Nov 23 | Nov 27 | Dec 2 |
Data is provided by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information.