Frost Dates: First and last frost dates for Kalkaska, MI
The charts on this page show the probabilities of receiving a certain temperature on a certain day. Some examples that might help:
- You have a small 20% chance of getting 32° by September 3.
- There is a 50% chance of being hit by a 32° frost starting around September 15
- You have a 80% chance of seeing 32° by September 27
- Said another way, you have a 1 in 5 chance at making it to that day without a 32° night.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
First 16° | Nov 2 | Nov 8 | Nov 12 | Nov 15 | Nov 18 | Nov 22 | Nov 25 | Nov 29 | Dec 5 |
First 20° | Oct 19 | Oct 26 | Oct 31 | Nov 5 | Nov 9 | Nov 13 | Nov 17 | Nov 23 | Nov 30 |
First 24° | Oct 3 | Oct 10 | Oct 15 | Oct 19 | Oct 23 | Oct 27 | Oct 31 | Nov 5 | Nov 12 |
First 28° | Sep 15 | Sep 22 | Sep 26 | Oct 1 | Oct 5 | Oct 9 | Oct 13 | Oct 18 | Oct 25 |
First 32° | Aug 28 | Sep 3 | Sep 8 | Sep 12 | Sep 15 | Sep 19 | Sep 23 | Sep 27 | Oct 3 |
First 36° | Aug 9 | Aug 17 | Aug 23 | Aug 27 | Sep 1 | Sep 5 | Sep 10 | Sep 15 | Sep 23 |
What's a safe temperature for tender plants? When the nightly temperature falls, frost can form, even above 32°, because the air is colder high above the ground and the frost can form up there and then fall down onto your garden and do some damage, even if it's 36° on the ground. So many factors come into play, including wind, concrete, houses, trees and other structures, etc etc etc. Because of all this, you might want to consider 36° as "the danger zone".
In your average springtime, you have a 90% chance that there will be no 36° nights by July 8. In other words, you can pretty much count on being safe from frost by that day. But we want to get those tomatoes in the ground as soon as possible, right? We see that there's still an 80% chance of 36° on May 30, so we don't dare plant that early. We wait a few days and by June 14 we are at the 50/50 point. At this point, we are close and we can start watching the weather forecast. If the upcoming week's forecast doesn't show below 40°, then it's probably okay to risk planting out your plants.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Last 16° | Apr 20 | Apr 16 | Apr 13 | Apr 10 | Apr 8 | Apr 5 | Apr 2 | Mar 30 | Mar 26 |
Last 20° | Apr 28 | Apr 25 | Apr 22 | Apr 19 | Apr 17 | Apr 15 | Apr 13 | Apr 10 | Apr 6 |
Last 24° | May 11 | May 7 | May 4 | May 2 | Apr 30 | Apr 27 | Apr 25 | Apr 22 | Apr 18 |
Last 28° | May 26 | May 21 | May 17 | May 14 | May 11 | May 8 | May 5 | May 1 | Apr 26 |
Last 32° | Jun 15 | Jun 10 | Jun 5 | Jun 2 | May 30 | May 26 | May 23 | May 19 | May 13 |
Last 36° | Jul 8 | Jun 30 | Jun 24 | Jun 19 | Jun 14 | Jun 10 | Jun 5 | May 30 | May 22 |
Data is provided by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information.