Frost Dates: First and last frost dates for Jacksonville Beach, FL
What's a safe temperature for tender plants? When the nightly temperature falls, frost can form, even above 32°, because the air is colder high above the ground and the frost can form up there and then fall down onto your garden and do some damage, even if it's 36° on the ground. So many factors come into play, including wind, concrete, houses, trees and other structures, etc etc etc. Because of all this, you might want to consider 36° as "the danger zone".
In your average springtime, you have a 90% chance that there will be no 36° nights by March 12. In other words, you can pretty much count on being safe from frost by that day. But we want to get those tomatoes in the ground as soon as possible, right? We see that there's still an 80% chance of 36° on February 6, so we don't dare plant that early. We wait a few days and by February 20 we are at the 50/50 point. At this point, we are close and we can start watching the weather forecast. If the upcoming week's forecast doesn't show below 40°, then it's probably okay to risk planting out your plants.
| Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 16° | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Last 20° | Jan 14 | Dec 28 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Last 24° | Feb 11 | Jan 29 | Jan 17 | Jan 2 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Last 28° | Mar 1 | Feb 18 | Feb 9 | Feb 1 | Jan 24 | Jan 13 | -- | -- | -- |
| Last 32° | Mar 3 | Feb 22 | Feb 16 | Feb 10 | Feb 5 | Jan 31 | Jan 26 | Jan 19 | Jan 8 |
| Last 36° | Mar 12 | Mar 5 | Feb 28 | Feb 24 | Feb 20 | Feb 15 | Feb 11 | Feb 6 | Jan 30 |
The charts on this page show the probabilities of receiving a certain temperature on a certain day. Some examples that might help:
- You have a small 20% chance of getting 32° by December 11.
- There is a 50% chance of being hit by a 32° frost starting around December 31
- You have a 80% chance of seeing 32° by January 22
- Said another way, you have a 1 in 5 chance at making it to that day without a 32° night.
| Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| First 16° | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| First 20° | Jan 9 | Jan 26 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| First 24° | Dec 27 | Jan 12 | Jan 25 | Feb 12 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| First 28° | Dec 10 | Dec 24 | Jan 3 | Jan 13 | Jan 24 | Feb 7 | -- | -- | -- |
| First 32° | Nov 30 | Dec 11 | Dec 19 | Dec 25 | Dec 31 | Jan 7 | Jan 14 | Jan 22 | Feb 4 |
| First 36° | Nov 11 | Nov 21 | Nov 28 | Dec 5 | Dec 11 | Dec 17 | Dec 23 | Dec 31 | Jan 10 |
Data is provided by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information.