Frost Dates: First and last frost dates for Hatteras, NC
What's a safe temperature for tender plants? When the nightly temperature falls, frost can form, even above 32°, because the air is colder high above the ground and the frost can form up there and then fall down onto your garden and do some damage, even if it's 36° on the ground. So many factors come into play, including wind, concrete, houses, trees and other structures, etc etc etc. Because of all this, you might want to consider 36° as "the danger zone".
In your average springtime, you have a 90% chance that there will be no 36° nights by April 9. In other words, you can pretty much count on being safe from frost by that day. But we want to get those tomatoes in the ground as soon as possible, right? We see that there's still an 80% chance of 36° on March 7, so we don't dare plant that early. We wait a few days and by March 20 we are at the 50/50 point. At this point, we are close and we can start watching the weather forecast. If the upcoming week's forecast doesn't show below 40°, then it's probably okay to risk planting out your plants.
| Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 16° | Jan 14 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Last 20° | Jan 30 | Jan 21 | Jan 13 | Dec 31 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Last 24° | Feb 20 | Feb 11 | Feb 4 | Jan 28 | Jan 21 | Jan 12 | -- | -- | -- |
| Last 28° | Mar 13 | Mar 3 | Feb 24 | Feb 17 | Feb 11 | Feb 5 | Jan 29 | Jan 19 | -- |
| Last 32° | Mar 29 | Mar 21 | Mar 15 | Mar 10 | Mar 6 | Mar 1 | Feb 25 | Feb 19 | Feb 11 |
| Last 36° | Apr 9 | Apr 2 | Mar 28 | Mar 24 | Mar 20 | Mar 16 | Mar 12 | Mar 7 | Feb 28 |
The charts on this page show the probabilities of receiving a certain temperature on a certain day. Some examples that might help:
- You have a small 20% chance of getting 32° by December 4.
- There is a 50% chance of being hit by a 32° frost starting around December 18
- You have a 80% chance of seeing 32° by January 2
- Said another way, you have a 1 in 5 chance at making it to that day without a 32° night.
| Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| First 16° | Jan 13 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| First 20° | Jan 1 | Jan 11 | Jan 20 | Feb 3 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| First 24° | Dec 27 | Jan 5 | Jan 11 | Jan 18 | Jan 25 | Feb 5 | -- | -- | -- |
| First 28° | Dec 10 | Dec 20 | Dec 27 | Jan 3 | Jan 9 | Jan 16 | Jan 23 | Feb 3 | -- |
| First 32° | Nov 26 | Dec 4 | Dec 9 | Dec 14 | Dec 18 | Dec 23 | Dec 28 | Jan 2 | Jan 10 |
| First 36° | Nov 10 | Nov 18 | Nov 23 | Nov 27 | Dec 1 | Dec 5 | Dec 9 | Dec 15 | Dec 22 |
Data is provided by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information.