Frost Dates: First and last frost dates for Hackberry, LA
What's a safe temperature for tender plants? When the nightly temperature falls, frost can form, even above 32°, because the air is colder high above the ground and the frost can form up there and then fall down onto your garden and do some damage, even if it's 36° on the ground. So many factors come into play, including wind, concrete, houses, trees and other structures, etc etc etc. Because of all this, you might want to consider 36° as "the danger zone".
In your average springtime, you have a 90% chance that there will be no 36° nights by March 21. In other words, you can pretty much count on being safe from frost by that day. But we want to get those tomatoes in the ground as soon as possible, right? We see that there's still an 80% chance of 36° on February 2, so we don't dare plant that early. We wait a few days and by February 21 we are at the 50/50 point. At this point, we are close and we can start watching the weather forecast. If the upcoming week's forecast doesn't show below 40°, then it's probably okay to risk planting out your plants.
| Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 16° | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Last 20° | Jan 14 | Dec 30 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Last 24° | Jan 24 | Jan 12 | Jan 1 | Dec 15 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Last 28° | Feb 20 | Feb 10 | Feb 2 | Jan 25 | Jan 18 | Jan 8 | Dec 23 | -- | -- |
| Last 32° | Mar 6 | Feb 22 | Feb 14 | Feb 7 | Jan 31 | Jan 24 | Jan 16 | Jan 7 | Dec 24 |
| Last 36° | Mar 21 | Mar 11 | Mar 4 | Feb 26 | Feb 21 | Feb 15 | Feb 9 | Feb 2 | Jan 24 |
The charts on this page show the probabilities of receiving a certain temperature on a certain day. Some examples that might help:
- You have a small 20% chance of getting 32° by November 25.
- There is a 50% chance of being hit by a 32° frost starting around December 18
- You have a 80% chance of seeing 32° by January 11
- Said another way, you have a 1 in 5 chance at making it to that day without a 32° night.
| Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| First 16° | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| First 20° | Jan 2 | Jan 17 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| First 24° | Dec 23 | Jan 3 | Jan 13 | Jan 28 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| First 28° | Dec 11 | Dec 20 | Dec 26 | Jan 1 | Jan 6 | Jan 13 | Jan 23 | -- | -- |
| First 32° | Nov 13 | Nov 25 | Dec 4 | Dec 11 | Dec 18 | Dec 25 | Jan 2 | Jan 11 | Jan 25 |
| First 36° | Nov 12 | Nov 19 | Nov 24 | Nov 29 | Dec 3 | Dec 7 | Dec 11 | Dec 16 | Dec 23 |
Data is provided by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information.