Frost Dates: First and last frost dates for Graterford, PA
What's a safe temperature for tender plants? When the nightly temperature falls, frost can form, even above 32°, because the air is colder high above the ground and the frost can form up there and then fall down onto your garden and do some damage, even if it's 36° on the ground. So many factors come into play, including wind, concrete, houses, trees and other structures, etc etc etc. Because of all this, you might want to consider 36° as "the danger zone".
In your average springtime, you have a 90% chance that there will be no 36° nights by June 1. In other words, you can pretty much count on being safe from frost by that day. But we want to get those tomatoes in the ground as soon as possible, right? We see that there's still an 80% chance of 36° on May 1, so we don't dare plant that early. We wait a few days and by May 14 we are at the 50/50 point. At this point, we are close and we can start watching the weather forecast. If the upcoming week's forecast doesn't show below 40°, then it's probably okay to risk planting out your plants.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Last 16° | Mar 29 | Mar 22 | Mar 17 | Mar 13 | Mar 9 | Mar 4 | Feb 28 | Feb 23 | Feb 16 |
Last 20° | Apr 11 | Apr 3 | Mar 28 | Mar 24 | Mar 19 | Mar 15 | Mar 10 | Mar 5 | Feb 25 |
Last 24° | Apr 22 | Apr 15 | Apr 11 | Apr 7 | Apr 3 | Mar 31 | Mar 27 | Mar 22 | Mar 16 |
Last 28° | May 10 | May 2 | Apr 27 | Apr 22 | Apr 18 | Apr 13 | Apr 9 | Apr 3 | Mar 26 |
Last 32° | May 24 | May 17 | May 11 | May 7 | May 2 | Apr 28 | Apr 23 | Apr 18 | Apr 10 |
Last 36° | Jun 1 | May 26 | May 21 | May 17 | May 14 | May 10 | May 6 | May 1 | Apr 25 |
The charts on this page show the probabilities of receiving a certain temperature on a certain day. Some examples that might help:
- You have a small 20% chance of getting 32° by September 24.
- There is a 50% chance of being hit by a 32° frost starting around October 9
- You have a 80% chance of seeing 32° by October 24
- Said another way, you have a 1 in 5 chance at making it to that day without a 32° night.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
First 16° | Nov 7 | Nov 17 | Nov 24 | Nov 30 | Dec 5 | Dec 10 | Dec 16 | Dec 23 | Jan 2 |
First 20° | Oct 30 | Nov 7 | Nov 13 | Nov 18 | Nov 23 | Nov 28 | Dec 3 | Dec 9 | Dec 17 |
First 24° | Oct 7 | Oct 17 | Oct 24 | Oct 30 | Nov 5 | Nov 11 | Nov 17 | Nov 24 | Dec 4 |
First 28° | Sep 24 | Oct 3 | Oct 10 | Oct 16 | Oct 22 | Oct 27 | Nov 2 | Nov 9 | Nov 18 |
First 32° | Sep 16 | Sep 24 | Sep 29 | Oct 4 | Oct 9 | Oct 13 | Oct 18 | Oct 24 | Oct 31 |
First 36° | Sep 8 | Sep 15 | Sep 20 | Sep 24 | Sep 28 | Oct 2 | Oct 6 | Oct 11 | Oct 18 |
Data is provided by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information.