Frost Dates: First and last frost dates for Grand Island Ctr Ne, NE
What's a safe temperature for tender plants? When the nightly temperature falls, frost can form, even above 32°, because the air is colder high above the ground and the frost can form up there and then fall down onto your garden and do some damage, even if it's 36° on the ground. So many factors come into play, including wind, concrete, houses, trees and other structures, etc etc etc. Because of all this, you might want to consider 36° as "the danger zone".
In your average springtime, you have a 90% chance that there will be no 36° nights by May 17. In other words, you can pretty much count on being safe from frost by that day. But we want to get those tomatoes in the ground as soon as possible, right? We see that there's still an 80% chance of 36° on April 28, so we don't dare plant that early. We wait a few days and by May 6 we are at the 50/50 point. At this point, we are close and we can start watching the weather forecast. If the upcoming week's forecast doesn't show below 40°, then it's probably okay to risk planting out your plants.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Last 16° | Apr 1 | Mar 26 | Mar 22 | Mar 19 | Mar 16 | Mar 13 | Mar 9 | Mar 5 | Feb 28 |
Last 20° | Apr 11 | Apr 6 | Apr 2 | Mar 30 | Mar 27 | Mar 24 | Mar 21 | Mar 17 | Mar 12 |
Last 24° | Apr 17 | Apr 13 | Apr 10 | Apr 7 | Apr 4 | Apr 2 | Mar 30 | Mar 27 | Mar 23 |
Last 28° | Apr 29 | Apr 24 | Apr 20 | Apr 17 | Apr 14 | Apr 11 | Apr 8 | Apr 4 | Mar 30 |
Last 32° | May 10 | May 5 | May 2 | Apr 29 | Apr 26 | Apr 23 | Apr 20 | Apr 17 | Apr 12 |
Last 36° | May 17 | May 13 | May 10 | May 8 | May 6 | May 3 | May 1 | Apr 28 | Apr 24 |
The charts on this page show the probabilities of receiving a certain temperature on a certain day. Some examples that might help:
- You have a small 20% chance of getting 32° by September 28.
- There is a 50% chance of being hit by a 32° frost starting around October 8
- You have a 80% chance of seeing 32° by October 17
- Said another way, you have a 1 in 5 chance at making it to that day without a 32° night.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
First 16° | Oct 25 | Nov 1 | Nov 6 | Nov 10 | Nov 14 | Nov 18 | Nov 22 | Nov 27 | Dec 4 |
First 20° | Oct 18 | Oct 24 | Oct 29 | Nov 2 | Nov 5 | Nov 9 | Nov 13 | Nov 17 | Nov 24 |
First 24° | Oct 9 | Oct 15 | Oct 20 | Oct 23 | Oct 27 | Oct 30 | Nov 3 | Nov 7 | Nov 13 |
First 28° | Oct 1 | Oct 6 | Oct 10 | Oct 13 | Oct 16 | Oct 18 | Oct 22 | Oct 25 | Oct 30 |
First 32° | Sep 23 | Sep 28 | Oct 2 | Oct 5 | Oct 8 | Oct 11 | Oct 14 | Oct 17 | Oct 22 |
First 36° | Sep 14 | Sep 18 | Sep 21 | Sep 24 | Sep 26 | Sep 29 | Oct 1 | Oct 4 | Oct 9 |
Data is provided by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information.