Frost Dates: First and last frost dates for Geary, OK
What's a safe temperature for tender plants? When the nightly temperature falls, frost can form, even above 32°, because the air is colder high above the ground and the frost can form up there and then fall down onto your garden and do some damage, even if it's 36° on the ground. So many factors come into play, including wind, concrete, houses, trees and other structures, etc etc etc. Because of all this, you might want to consider 36° as "the danger zone".
In your average springtime, you have a 90% chance that there will be no 36° nights by April 28. In other words, you can pretty much count on being safe from frost by that day. But we want to get those tomatoes in the ground as soon as possible, right? We see that there's still an 80% chance of 36° on April 4, so we don't dare plant that early. We wait a few days and by April 14 we are at the 50/50 point. At this point, we are close and we can start watching the weather forecast. If the upcoming week's forecast doesn't show below 40°, then it's probably okay to risk planting out your plants.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Last 16° | Mar 6 | Feb 26 | Feb 20 | Feb 15 | Feb 11 | Feb 6 | Jan 31 | Jan 24 | Jan 11 |
Last 20° | Mar 23 | Mar 13 | Mar 7 | Mar 1 | Feb 23 | Feb 17 | Feb 11 | Feb 3 | Jan 19 |
Last 24° | Mar 26 | Mar 19 | Mar 15 | Mar 11 | Mar 7 | Mar 3 | Feb 27 | Feb 22 | Feb 15 |
Last 28° | Apr 10 | Apr 3 | Mar 30 | Mar 26 | Mar 22 | Mar 19 | Mar 15 | Mar 10 | Mar 4 |
Last 32° | Apr 13 | Apr 8 | Apr 5 | Apr 2 | Mar 30 | Mar 27 | Mar 24 | Mar 21 | Mar 16 |
Last 36° | Apr 28 | Apr 23 | Apr 20 | Apr 17 | Apr 14 | Apr 11 | Apr 8 | Apr 4 | Mar 30 |
The charts on this page show the probabilities of receiving a certain temperature on a certain day. Some examples that might help:
- You have a small 20% chance of getting 32° by October 21.
- There is a 50% chance of being hit by a 32° frost starting around November 4
- You have a 80% chance of seeing 32° by November 18
- Said another way, you have a 1 in 5 chance at making it to that day without a 32° night.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
First 16° | Nov 16 | Nov 28 | Dec 8 | Dec 15 | Dec 23 | Dec 30 | Jan 8 | Jan 19 | Feb 8 |
First 20° | Nov 13 | Nov 21 | Nov 27 | Dec 2 | Dec 6 | Dec 11 | Dec 17 | Dec 23 | Jan 5 |
First 24° | Oct 29 | Nov 9 | Nov 16 | Nov 23 | Nov 29 | Dec 5 | Dec 12 | Dec 19 | Dec 30 |
First 28° | Oct 25 | Nov 1 | Nov 5 | Nov 9 | Nov 13 | Nov 17 | Nov 21 | Nov 26 | Dec 2 |
First 32° | Oct 14 | Oct 21 | Oct 26 | Oct 31 | Nov 4 | Nov 8 | Nov 13 | Nov 18 | Nov 26 |
First 36° | Oct 1 | Oct 8 | Oct 14 | Oct 18 | Oct 23 | Oct 27 | Nov 1 | Nov 6 | Nov 14 |
Data is provided by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information.