Frost Dates: First and last frost dates for Falfurrias, TX
What's a safe temperature for tender plants? When the nightly temperature falls, frost can form, even above 32°, because the air is colder high above the ground and the frost can form up there and then fall down onto your garden and do some damage, even if it's 36° on the ground. So many factors come into play, including wind, concrete, houses, trees and other structures, etc etc etc. Because of all this, you might want to consider 36° as "the danger zone".
In your average springtime, you have a 90% chance that there will be no 36° nights by March 27. In other words, you can pretty much count on being safe from frost by that day. But we want to get those tomatoes in the ground as soon as possible, right? We see that there's still an 80% chance of 36° on February 6, so we don't dare plant that early. We wait a few days and by February 25 we are at the 50/50 point. At this point, we are close and we can start watching the weather forecast. If the upcoming week's forecast doesn't show below 40°, then it's probably okay to risk planting out your plants.
| Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 16° | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Last 20° | Dec 27 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Last 24° | Feb 1 | Jan 18 | Jan 5 | Dec 17 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Last 28° | Feb 20 | Feb 9 | Jan 31 | Jan 24 | Jan 16 | Jan 9 | Dec 31 | Dec 17 | -- |
| Last 32° | Mar 18 | Mar 4 | Feb 22 | Feb 14 | Feb 6 | Jan 29 | Jan 20 | Jan 9 | Dec 24 |
| Last 36° | Mar 27 | Mar 17 | Mar 9 | Mar 3 | Feb 25 | Feb 20 | Feb 13 | Feb 6 | Jan 27 |
The charts on this page show the probabilities of receiving a certain temperature on a certain day. Some examples that might help:
- You have a small 20% chance of getting 32° by November 27.
- There is a 50% chance of being hit by a 32° frost starting around December 13
- You have a 80% chance of seeing 32° by December 31
- Said another way, you have a 1 in 5 chance at making it to that day without a 32° night.
| Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| First 16° | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| First 20° | Jan 2 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| First 24° | Dec 23 | Jan 3 | Jan 15 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| First 28° | Dec 2 | Dec 12 | Dec 20 | Dec 26 | Jan 2 | Jan 9 | Jan 17 | Jan 29 | -- |
| First 32° | Nov 19 | Nov 27 | Dec 3 | Dec 8 | Dec 13 | Dec 18 | Dec 24 | Dec 31 | Jan 10 |
| First 36° | Nov 7 | Nov 14 | Nov 20 | Nov 24 | Nov 28 | Dec 2 | Dec 6 | Dec 11 | Dec 18 |
Data is provided by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information.