Frost Dates: First and last frost dates for Dulce, NM

How to read these charts for the spring
As the growing season approaches, the days get longer, the weather begins to warm up, and the nights start being less cold. You're still getting frost, but the chance of nightly frosts gets less and less with each passing day. Eventually, the frost stops, and this is when your tender plants are fully safe. So, how do you plan for this? The probabilities on this page help you assess your risk of frost on any given day.

What's a safe temperature for tender plants? When the nightly temperature falls, frost can form, even above 32°, because the air is colder high above the ground and the frost can form up there and then fall down onto your garden and do some damage, even if it's 36° on the ground. So many factors come into play, including wind, concrete, houses, trees and other structures, etc etc etc. Because of all this, you might want to consider 36° as "the danger zone".

In your average springtime, you have a 90% chance that there will be no 36° nights by July 21. In other words, you can pretty much count on being safe from frost by that day. But we want to get those tomatoes in the ground as soon as possible, right? We see that there's still an 80% chance of 36° on June 24, so we don't dare plant that early. We wait a few days and by July 5 we are at the 50/50 point. At this point, we are close and we can start watching the weather forecast. If the upcoming week's forecast doesn't show below 40°, then it's probably okay to risk planting out your plants.

In the Spring
Temperature 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
Last 16° May 3 Apr 27 Apr 22 Apr 18 Apr 14 Apr 10 Apr 6 Apr 2 Mar 26
Last 20° May 23 May 15 May 10 May 5 May 1 Apr 26 Apr 21 Apr 16 Apr 8
Last 24° Jun 6 May 30 May 26 May 22 May 18 May 14 May 10 May 5 Apr 29
Last 28° Jun 22 Jun 15 Jun 11 Jun 6 Jun 3 May 30 May 26 May 21 May 14
Last 32° Jul 12 Jul 6 Jul 2 Jun 28 Jun 25 Jun 22 Jun 18 Jun 14 Jun 8
Last 36° Jul 21 Jul 15 Jul 11 Jul 8 Jul 5 Jul 1 Jun 28 Jun 24 Jun 18

How to read these charts for the fall
As your growing season comes to an end, the nightly temperatures for Dulce, NM start to go down, and therefore every day that goes by increases the chance that you'll get frost. Your risk of frost really begins around August 29, and by September 25 you're almost certain to have received at least one frost event.

The charts on this page show the probabilities of receiving a certain temperature on a certain day. Some examples that might help:

  1. You have a small 20% chance of getting 32° by September 4.
  2. There is a 50% chance of being hit by a 32° frost starting around September 14
  3. You have a 80% chance of seeing 32° by September 25
  4. Said another way, you have a 1 in 5 chance at making it to that day without a 32° night.
In the Fall
Temperature 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
First 16° Oct 16 Oct 21 Oct 24 Oct 27 Oct 30 Nov 2 Nov 5 Nov 8 Nov 13
First 20° Oct 1 Oct 6 Oct 9 Oct 12 Oct 15 Oct 17 Oct 20 Oct 24 Oct 29
First 24° Sep 19 Sep 24 Sep 28 Oct 1 Oct 4 Oct 7 Oct 10 Oct 13 Oct 18
First 28° Sep 11 Sep 15 Sep 18 Sep 20 Sep 23 Sep 25 Sep 28 Oct 1 Oct 5
First 32° Aug 29 Sep 4 Sep 8 Sep 11 Sep 14 Sep 18 Sep 21 Sep 25 Oct 1
First 36° Aug 12 Aug 19 Aug 24 Aug 29 Sep 2 Sep 6 Sep 10 Sep 15 Sep 22

Frost Dates for other nearby locations
  • El Vado Dam, NM
  • Chama, NM
  • Tierra Amarilla, NM
  • Lindrith, NM
  • Wolf Creek Pass, CO
  • Abiquiu Dam, NM
  • Cuba, NM
  • Lybrook, NM
  • Vallecito Dam, CO
  • Wolf Canyon, NM

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    • Data is provided by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information.