Frost Dates: First and last frost dates for Crested Butte, CO
What's a safe temperature for tender plants? When the nightly temperature falls, frost can form, even above 32°, because the air is colder high above the ground and the frost can form up there and then fall down onto your garden and do some damage, even if it's 36° on the ground. So many factors come into play, including wind, concrete, houses, trees and other structures, etc etc etc. Because of all this, you might want to consider 36° as "the danger zone".
In your average springtime, you have a 90% chance that there will be no 36° nights by August 3. In other words, you can pretty much count on being safe from frost by that day. But we want to get those tomatoes in the ground as soon as possible, right? We see that there's still an 80% chance of 36° on July 22, so we don't dare plant that early. We wait a few days and by July 27 we are at the 50/50 point. At this point, we are close and we can start watching the weather forecast. If the upcoming week's forecast doesn't show below 40°, then it's probably okay to risk planting out your plants.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Last 16° | May 11 | May 7 | May 3 | May 1 | Apr 28 | Apr 25 | Apr 22 | Apr 19 | Apr 15 |
Last 20° | May 23 | May 19 | May 16 | May 14 | May 12 | May 9 | May 7 | May 4 | Apr 30 |
Last 24° | Jun 22 | Jun 15 | Jun 9 | Jun 4 | May 31 | May 27 | May 22 | May 17 | May 9 |
Last 28° | Jul 6 | Jul 1 | Jun 28 | Jun 24 | Jun 22 | Jun 19 | Jun 16 | Jun 12 | Jun 7 |
Last 32° | Jul 31 | Jul 25 | Jul 21 | Jul 18 | Jul 15 | Jul 11 | Jul 8 | Jul 4 | Jun 28 |
Last 36° | Aug 3 | Aug 1 | Jul 30 | Jul 28 | Jul 27 | Jul 25 | Jul 24 | Jul 22 | Jul 19 |
The charts on this page show the probabilities of receiving a certain temperature on a certain day. Some examples that might help:
- You have a small 20% chance of getting 32° by August 4.
- There is a 50% chance of being hit by a 32° frost starting around August 15
- You have a 80% chance of seeing 32° by August 25
- Said another way, you have a 1 in 5 chance at making it to that day without a 32° night.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
First 16° | Sep 23 | Sep 29 | Oct 2 | Oct 6 | Oct 9 | Oct 12 | Oct 15 | Oct 19 | Oct 24 |
First 20° | Sep 13 | Sep 17 | Sep 21 | Sep 23 | Sep 26 | Sep 28 | Oct 1 | Oct 4 | Oct 9 |
First 24° | Aug 28 | Sep 3 | Sep 8 | Sep 11 | Sep 15 | Sep 18 | Sep 22 | Sep 26 | Oct 2 |
First 28° | Aug 18 | Aug 23 | Aug 27 | Aug 30 | Sep 2 | Sep 5 | Sep 8 | Sep 11 | Sep 16 |
First 32° | Jul 31 | Aug 4 | Aug 8 | Aug 12 | Aug 15 | Aug 18 | Aug 21 | Aug 25 | Aug 30 |
First 36° | Jul 30 | Jul 31 | Aug 2 | Aug 3 | Aug 4 | Aug 5 | Aug 6 | Aug 8 | Aug 9 |
Data is provided by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information.