Frost Dates: First and last frost dates for Champion Van Riper Pk, MI
The charts on this page show the probabilities of receiving a certain temperature on a certain day. Some examples that might help:
- You have a small 20% chance of getting 32° by August 16.
- There is a 50% chance of being hit by a 32° frost starting around August 28
- You have a 80% chance of seeing 32° by September 9
- Said another way, you have a 1 in 5 chance at making it to that day without a 32° night.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
First 16° | Oct 11 | Oct 18 | Oct 23 | Oct 27 | Oct 30 | Nov 3 | Nov 7 | Nov 12 | Nov 18 |
First 20° | Sep 29 | Oct 4 | Oct 8 | Oct 11 | Oct 14 | Oct 17 | Oct 20 | Oct 24 | Oct 29 |
First 24° | Sep 14 | Sep 20 | Sep 24 | Sep 28 | Oct 1 | Oct 4 | Oct 8 | Oct 12 | Oct 17 |
First 28° | Aug 28 | Sep 2 | Sep 6 | Sep 10 | Sep 13 | Sep 16 | Sep 19 | Sep 23 | Sep 29 |
First 32° | Aug 10 | Aug 16 | Aug 21 | Aug 24 | Aug 28 | Sep 1 | Sep 5 | Sep 9 | Sep 16 |
First 36° | Aug 1 | Aug 7 | Aug 11 | Aug 14 | Aug 17 | Aug 20 | Aug 24 | Aug 27 | Sep 2 |
What's a safe temperature for tender plants? When the nightly temperature falls, frost can form, even above 32°, because the air is colder high above the ground and the frost can form up there and then fall down onto your garden and do some damage, even if it's 36° on the ground. So many factors come into play, including wind, concrete, houses, trees and other structures, etc etc etc. Because of all this, you might want to consider 36° as "the danger zone".
In your average springtime, you have a 90% chance that there will be no 36° nights by August 1. In other words, you can pretty much count on being safe from frost by that day. But we want to get those tomatoes in the ground as soon as possible, right? We see that there's still an 80% chance of 36° on June 24, so we don't dare plant that early. We wait a few days and by July 9 we are at the 50/50 point. At this point, we are close and we can start watching the weather forecast. If the upcoming week's forecast doesn't show below 40°, then it's probably okay to risk planting out your plants.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Last 16° | May 6 | May 2 | Apr 28 | Apr 26 | Apr 23 | Apr 21 | Apr 18 | Apr 15 | Apr 10 |
Last 20° | May 20 | May 16 | May 13 | May 10 | May 7 | May 5 | May 2 | Apr 29 | Apr 25 |
Last 24° | Jun 9 | Jun 4 | May 31 | May 27 | May 24 | May 21 | May 17 | May 13 | May 7 |
Last 28° | Jun 25 | Jun 19 | Jun 14 | Jun 11 | Jun 7 | Jun 3 | May 30 | May 26 | May 19 |
Last 32° | Jul 20 | Jul 11 | Jul 5 | Jun 29 | Jun 24 | Jun 19 | Jun 14 | Jun 7 | May 29 |
Last 36° | Aug 1 | Jul 24 | Jul 18 | Jul 14 | Jul 9 | Jul 5 | Jun 30 | Jun 24 | Jun 16 |
Data is provided by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information.