Frost Dates: First and last frost dates for Celo, NC
What's a safe temperature for tender plants? When the nightly temperature falls, frost can form, even above 32°, because the air is colder high above the ground and the frost can form up there and then fall down onto your garden and do some damage, even if it's 36° on the ground. So many factors come into play, including wind, concrete, houses, trees and other structures, etc etc etc. Because of all this, you might want to consider 36° as "the danger zone".
In your average springtime, you have a 90% chance that there will be no 36° nights by June 14. In other words, you can pretty much count on being safe from frost by that day. But we want to get those tomatoes in the ground as soon as possible, right? We see that there's still an 80% chance of 36° on May 11, so we don't dare plant that early. We wait a few days and by May 24 we are at the 50/50 point. At this point, we are close and we can start watching the weather forecast. If the upcoming week's forecast doesn't show below 40°, then it's probably okay to risk planting out your plants.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Last 16° | Mar 30 | Mar 23 | Mar 17 | Mar 13 | Mar 9 | Mar 4 | Feb 28 | Feb 22 | Feb 15 |
Last 20° | Apr 11 | Apr 4 | Mar 30 | Mar 26 | Mar 22 | Mar 19 | Mar 14 | Mar 10 | Mar 3 |
Last 24° | Apr 25 | Apr 19 | Apr 15 | Apr 12 | Apr 9 | Apr 6 | Apr 2 | Mar 29 | Mar 24 |
Last 28° | May 13 | May 7 | May 2 | Apr 29 | Apr 25 | Apr 22 | Apr 18 | Apr 14 | Apr 8 |
Last 32° | May 30 | May 23 | May 18 | May 13 | May 9 | May 5 | May 1 | Apr 25 | Apr 18 |
Last 36° | Jun 14 | Jun 7 | Jun 2 | May 28 | May 24 | May 20 | May 16 | May 11 | May 3 |
The charts on this page show the probabilities of receiving a certain temperature on a certain day. Some examples that might help:
- You have a small 20% chance of getting 32° by September 25.
- There is a 50% chance of being hit by a 32° frost starting around October 4
- You have a 80% chance of seeing 32° by October 13
- Said another way, you have a 1 in 5 chance at making it to that day without a 32° night.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
First 16° | Nov 2 | Nov 10 | Nov 15 | Nov 20 | Nov 24 | Nov 29 | Dec 3 | Dec 9 | Dec 16 |
First 20° | Oct 20 | Oct 26 | Oct 31 | Nov 5 | Nov 9 | Nov 12 | Nov 17 | Nov 22 | Nov 29 |
First 24° | Oct 9 | Oct 14 | Oct 17 | Oct 20 | Oct 23 | Oct 26 | Oct 29 | Nov 1 | Nov 6 |
First 28° | Sep 28 | Oct 2 | Oct 5 | Oct 8 | Oct 10 | Oct 13 | Oct 16 | Oct 19 | Oct 23 |
First 32° | Sep 20 | Sep 25 | Sep 28 | Oct 1 | Oct 4 | Oct 7 | Oct 10 | Oct 13 | Oct 18 |
First 36° | Sep 10 | Sep 15 | Sep 19 | Sep 22 | Sep 25 | Sep 28 | Oct 2 | Oct 5 | Oct 11 |
Data is provided by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information.