Frost Dates: First and last frost dates for Cape May, NJ
What's a safe temperature for tender plants? When the nightly temperature falls, frost can form, even above 32°, because the air is colder high above the ground and the frost can form up there and then fall down onto your garden and do some damage, even if it's 36° on the ground. So many factors come into play, including wind, concrete, houses, trees and other structures, etc etc etc. Because of all this, you might want to consider 36° as "the danger zone".
In your average springtime, you have a 90% chance that there will be no 36° nights by May 4. In other words, you can pretty much count on being safe from frost by that day. But we want to get those tomatoes in the ground as soon as possible, right? We see that there's still an 80% chance of 36° on April 10, so we don't dare plant that early. We wait a few days and by April 20 we are at the 50/50 point. At this point, we are close and we can start watching the weather forecast. If the upcoming week's forecast doesn't show below 40°, then it's probably okay to risk planting out your plants.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Last 16° | Mar 4 | Feb 26 | Feb 21 | Feb 18 | Feb 14 | Feb 10 | Feb 6 | Feb 1 | Jan 22 |
Last 20° | Mar 15 | Mar 8 | Mar 3 | Feb 27 | Feb 23 | Feb 19 | Feb 15 | Feb 10 | Feb 2 |
Last 24° | Mar 31 | Mar 25 | Mar 20 | Mar 17 | Mar 13 | Mar 9 | Mar 6 | Mar 1 | Feb 23 |
Last 28° | Apr 6 | Apr 2 | Mar 29 | Mar 27 | Mar 24 | Mar 21 | Mar 18 | Mar 15 | Mar 10 |
Last 32° | Apr 19 | Apr 14 | Apr 11 | Apr 9 | Apr 6 | Apr 4 | Apr 1 | Mar 29 | Mar 25 |
Last 36° | May 4 | Apr 29 | Apr 26 | Apr 22 | Apr 20 | Apr 17 | Apr 14 | Apr 10 | Apr 5 |
The charts on this page show the probabilities of receiving a certain temperature on a certain day. Some examples that might help:
- You have a small 20% chance of getting 32° by October 27.
- There is a 50% chance of being hit by a 32° frost starting around November 6
- You have a 80% chance of seeing 32° by November 15
- Said another way, you have a 1 in 5 chance at making it to that day without a 32° night.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
First 16° | Dec 12 | Dec 19 | Dec 25 | Dec 29 | Jan 2 | Jan 7 | Jan 12 | Jan 18 | Jan 30 |
First 20° | Dec 7 | Dec 12 | Dec 16 | Dec 20 | Dec 23 | Dec 27 | Dec 31 | Jan 4 | Jan 11 |
First 24° | Nov 26 | Dec 1 | Dec 4 | Dec 6 | Dec 8 | Dec 11 | Dec 13 | Dec 16 | Dec 21 |
First 28° | Nov 10 | Nov 14 | Nov 17 | Nov 20 | Nov 23 | Nov 26 | Nov 28 | Dec 2 | Dec 6 |
First 32° | Oct 22 | Oct 27 | Oct 30 | Nov 3 | Nov 6 | Nov 8 | Nov 12 | Nov 15 | Nov 20 |
First 36° | Oct 11 | Oct 16 | Oct 20 | Oct 23 | Oct 26 | Oct 29 | Nov 1 | Nov 5 | Nov 10 |
Data is provided by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information.