Frost Dates: First and last frost dates for Bushnell, FL
What's a safe temperature for tender plants? When the nightly temperature falls, frost can form, even above 32°, because the air is colder high above the ground and the frost can form up there and then fall down onto your garden and do some damage, even if it's 36° on the ground. So many factors come into play, including wind, concrete, houses, trees and other structures, etc etc etc. Because of all this, you might want to consider 36° as "the danger zone".
In your average springtime, you have a 90% chance that there will be no 36° nights by March 29. In other words, you can pretty much count on being safe from frost by that day. But we want to get those tomatoes in the ground as soon as possible, right? We see that there's still an 80% chance of 36° on February 20, so we don't dare plant that early. We wait a few days and by March 7 we are at the 50/50 point. At this point, we are close and we can start watching the weather forecast. If the upcoming week's forecast doesn't show below 40°, then it's probably okay to risk planting out your plants.
| Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 16° | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Last 20° | Jan 14 | Dec 29 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Last 24° | Feb 10 | Jan 30 | Jan 20 | Jan 10 | Dec 24 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Last 28° | Mar 3 | Feb 22 | Feb 15 | Feb 9 | Feb 4 | Jan 29 | Jan 23 | Jan 16 | Jan 4 |
| Last 32° | Mar 19 | Mar 10 | Mar 3 | Feb 25 | Feb 19 | Feb 14 | Feb 8 | Feb 1 | Jan 23 |
| Last 36° | Mar 29 | Mar 21 | Mar 16 | Mar 11 | Mar 7 | Mar 2 | Feb 26 | Feb 20 | Feb 12 |
The charts on this page show the probabilities of receiving a certain temperature on a certain day. Some examples that might help:
- You have a small 20% chance of getting 32° by November 28.
- There is a 50% chance of being hit by a 32° frost starting around December 15
- You have a 80% chance of seeing 32° by January 2
- Said another way, you have a 1 in 5 chance at making it to that day without a 32° night.
| Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| First 16° | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| First 20° | Jan 3 | Jan 21 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| First 24° | Dec 21 | Jan 5 | Jan 17 | Jan 30 | Feb 21 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| First 28° | Dec 3 | Dec 15 | Dec 24 | Dec 31 | Jan 7 | Jan 14 | Jan 21 | Jan 30 | Feb 14 |
| First 32° | Nov 19 | Nov 28 | Dec 5 | Dec 10 | Dec 15 | Dec 21 | Dec 26 | Jan 2 | Jan 11 |
| First 36° | Nov 3 | Nov 12 | Nov 18 | Nov 24 | Nov 29 | Dec 3 | Dec 9 | Dec 15 | Dec 24 |
Data is provided by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information.