Frost Dates: First and last frost dates for Bluestone Lake, WV
What's a safe temperature for tender plants? When the nightly temperature falls, frost can form, even above 32°, because the air is colder high above the ground and the frost can form up there and then fall down onto your garden and do some damage, even if it's 36° on the ground. So many factors come into play, including wind, concrete, houses, trees and other structures, etc etc etc. Because of all this, you might want to consider 36° as "the danger zone".
In your average springtime, you have a 90% chance that there will be no 36° nights by May 16. In other words, you can pretty much count on being safe from frost by that day. But we want to get those tomatoes in the ground as soon as possible, right? We see that there's still an 80% chance of 36° on April 26, so we don't dare plant that early. We wait a few days and by May 4 we are at the 50/50 point. At this point, we are close and we can start watching the weather forecast. If the upcoming week's forecast doesn't show below 40°, then it's probably okay to risk planting out your plants.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Last 16° | Mar 16 | Mar 10 | Mar 6 | Mar 2 | Feb 26 | Feb 23 | Feb 19 | Feb 14 | Feb 8 |
Last 20° | Mar 26 | Mar 20 | Mar 15 | Mar 10 | Mar 6 | Mar 2 | Feb 26 | Feb 21 | Feb 15 |
Last 24° | Apr 5 | Mar 30 | Mar 26 | Mar 22 | Mar 19 | Mar 16 | Mar 12 | Mar 8 | Mar 2 |
Last 28° | Apr 22 | Apr 17 | Apr 14 | Apr 10 | Apr 8 | Apr 5 | Apr 1 | Mar 29 | Mar 24 |
Last 32° | May 13 | May 6 | May 2 | Apr 28 | Apr 24 | Apr 21 | Apr 17 | Apr 12 | Apr 6 |
Last 36° | May 16 | May 12 | May 9 | May 6 | May 4 | May 1 | Apr 29 | Apr 26 | Apr 22 |
The charts on this page show the probabilities of receiving a certain temperature on a certain day. Some examples that might help:
- You have a small 20% chance of getting 32° by October 14.
- There is a 50% chance of being hit by a 32° frost starting around October 23
- You have a 80% chance of seeing 32° by November 1
- Said another way, you have a 1 in 5 chance at making it to that day without a 32° night.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
First 16° | Nov 21 | Nov 27 | Dec 2 | Dec 6 | Dec 10 | Dec 13 | Dec 17 | Dec 22 | Dec 29 |
First 20° | Nov 12 | Nov 17 | Nov 22 | Nov 25 | Nov 29 | Dec 2 | Dec 6 | Dec 10 | Dec 16 |
First 24° | Nov 1 | Nov 7 | Nov 12 | Nov 15 | Nov 19 | Nov 22 | Nov 26 | Nov 30 | Dec 6 |
First 28° | Oct 18 | Oct 24 | Oct 28 | Nov 1 | Nov 4 | Nov 8 | Nov 11 | Nov 15 | Nov 21 |
First 32° | Oct 9 | Oct 14 | Oct 17 | Oct 20 | Oct 23 | Oct 25 | Oct 28 | Nov 1 | Nov 5 |
First 36° | Oct 2 | Oct 5 | Oct 8 | Oct 11 | Oct 13 | Oct 15 | Oct 17 | Oct 20 | Oct 24 |
Data is provided by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information.