Frost Dates: First and last frost dates for Biloxi, MS
What's a safe temperature for tender plants? When the nightly temperature falls, frost can form, even above 32°, because the air is colder high above the ground and the frost can form up there and then fall down onto your garden and do some damage, even if it's 36° on the ground. So many factors come into play, including wind, concrete, houses, trees and other structures, etc etc etc. Because of all this, you might want to consider 36° as "the danger zone".
In your average springtime, you have a 90% chance that there will be no 36° nights by March 30. In other words, you can pretty much count on being safe from frost by that day. But we want to get those tomatoes in the ground as soon as possible, right? We see that there's still an 80% chance of 36° on February 21, so we don't dare plant that early. We wait a few days and by March 8 we are at the 50/50 point. At this point, we are close and we can start watching the weather forecast. If the upcoming week's forecast doesn't show below 40°, then it's probably okay to risk planting out your plants.
| Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 16° | Jan 13 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Last 20° | Jan 25 | Jan 9 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Last 24° | Feb 24 | Feb 12 | Feb 3 | Jan 25 | Jan 16 | Jan 2 | -- | -- | -- |
| Last 28° | Mar 4 | Feb 22 | Feb 15 | Feb 9 | Feb 3 | Jan 29 | Jan 22 | Jan 14 | Dec 29 |
| Last 32° | Mar 19 | Mar 11 | Mar 5 | Feb 28 | Feb 23 | Feb 18 | Feb 13 | Feb 8 | Jan 30 |
| Last 36° | Mar 30 | Mar 22 | Mar 17 | Mar 12 | Mar 8 | Mar 3 | Feb 27 | Feb 21 | Feb 14 |
The charts on this page show the probabilities of receiving a certain temperature on a certain day. Some examples that might help:
- You have a small 20% chance of getting 32° by November 22.
- There is a 50% chance of being hit by a 32° frost starting around December 10
- You have a 80% chance of seeing 32° by December 29
- Said another way, you have a 1 in 5 chance at making it to that day without a 32° night.
| Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| First 16° | Jan 12 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| First 20° | Jan 6 | Jan 23 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| First 24° | Dec 16 | Dec 27 | Jan 5 | Jan 13 | Jan 23 | Feb 5 | -- | -- | -- |
| First 28° | Nov 25 | Dec 7 | Dec 16 | Dec 24 | Dec 31 | Jan 7 | Jan 16 | Jan 27 | Feb 16 |
| First 32° | Nov 12 | Nov 22 | Nov 29 | Dec 5 | Dec 10 | Dec 16 | Dec 22 | Dec 29 | Jan 7 |
| First 36° | Nov 3 | Nov 10 | Nov 15 | Nov 20 | Nov 24 | Nov 28 | Dec 3 | Dec 8 | Dec 16 |
Data is provided by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information.