Frost Dates: First and last frost dates for Beltsville, MD
What's a safe temperature for tender plants? When the nightly temperature falls, frost can form, even above 32°, because the air is colder high above the ground and the frost can form up there and then fall down onto your garden and do some damage, even if it's 36° on the ground. So many factors come into play, including wind, concrete, houses, trees and other structures, etc etc etc. Because of all this, you might want to consider 36° as "the danger zone".
In your average springtime, you have a 90% chance that there will be no 36° nights by May 16. In other words, you can pretty much count on being safe from frost by that day. But we want to get those tomatoes in the ground as soon as possible, right? We see that there's still an 80% chance of 36° on April 26, so we don't dare plant that early. We wait a few days and by May 4 we are at the 50/50 point. At this point, we are close and we can start watching the weather forecast. If the upcoming week's forecast doesn't show below 40°, then it's probably okay to risk planting out your plants.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Last 16° | Mar 12 | Mar 5 | Feb 28 | Feb 24 | Feb 20 | Feb 16 | Feb 12 | Feb 7 | Jan 31 |
Last 20° | Mar 27 | Mar 22 | Mar 18 | Mar 15 | Mar 12 | Mar 9 | Mar 5 | Mar 2 | Feb 25 |
Last 24° | Apr 7 | Apr 2 | Mar 29 | Mar 26 | Mar 23 | Mar 20 | Mar 16 | Mar 13 | Mar 7 |
Last 28° | Apr 19 | Apr 14 | Apr 11 | Apr 8 | Apr 5 | Apr 2 | Mar 30 | Mar 27 | Mar 22 |
Last 32° | May 1 | Apr 26 | Apr 23 | Apr 21 | Apr 18 | Apr 16 | Apr 13 | Apr 10 | Apr 5 |
Last 36° | May 16 | May 12 | May 9 | May 6 | May 4 | May 1 | Apr 29 | Apr 26 | Apr 22 |
The charts on this page show the probabilities of receiving a certain temperature on a certain day. Some examples that might help:
- You have a small 20% chance of getting 32° by October 13.
- There is a 50% chance of being hit by a 32° frost starting around October 22
- You have a 80% chance of seeing 32° by October 31
- Said another way, you have a 1 in 5 chance at making it to that day without a 32° night.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
First 16° | Dec 1 | Dec 7 | Dec 11 | Dec 14 | Dec 18 | Dec 21 | Dec 24 | Dec 29 | Jan 3 |
First 20° | Nov 17 | Nov 24 | Nov 29 | Dec 3 | Dec 7 | Dec 11 | Dec 16 | Dec 21 | Dec 28 |
First 24° | Nov 2 | Nov 7 | Nov 11 | Nov 15 | Nov 18 | Nov 21 | Nov 25 | Nov 29 | Dec 4 |
First 28° | Oct 16 | Oct 21 | Oct 24 | Oct 28 | Oct 30 | Nov 2 | Nov 5 | Nov 9 | Nov 14 |
First 32° | Oct 9 | Oct 13 | Oct 17 | Oct 19 | Oct 22 | Oct 25 | Oct 27 | Oct 31 | Nov 4 |
First 36° | Sep 30 | Oct 4 | Oct 7 | Oct 10 | Oct 12 | Oct 15 | Oct 17 | Oct 20 | Oct 25 |
Data is provided by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information.